Projected Oncourt and Fantasy Success For Top 3-And-D Players

Share
Kyle Korver

Jan 16, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks shooting guard Kyle Korver (26) shoots a three in the second half against the Brooklyn Nets at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 109-95. Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

In nature, an ongoing evolutionary arms race ensures that neither predator nor prey has a considerable advantage over the other. NBA play works very much the same; it’s why we have the recently obsessed-over 3-and-D player. Noticing the increasing sophistication of team defenses, Gregg Popovich stuck out his leg in hopes of tripping up the arms race going on in basketball.

By nurturing a specimen that could act as both predator and prey, Popovich would ensure that the Spurs always remained at the top of the food chain. A defensive-minded player who could shoot at an elite level from distance was as much a product of this evolving NBA ecosystem as it was a knee-jerk reaction. As the original 3-and-D man proved, Popovich was onto something worth emulating.

Danny Green, after all, was on track to be this past NBA Finals’ MVP before he started to lag in production. And another 3-and-D guy, in Ray Allen, ultimately won the Miami Heat the championship.

Because the 3-and-D phenomenon is far from over, and because players fitting the 3-and-D mold are increasingly being afforded chances to be key contributors on teams, it’s important to look at how top-tier talents measure up in this role and how that translates to the court and the Fantasy League. As J. Gomez has so deftly constructed a procedure analyzing who is in the league’s top 3-and-D personnel, we’ll be using that as a launching pad.

Some of the criteria is different as we’ve done away with 3-point attempts and the percentage of 3-point field goal attempts out of a player’s total FG lobs. 3-pointers made (3PM) looks to be a more appropriate gauge as we’re judging players on the rate of their success rather than intention. 3PM%ofPPG is a stat that looks at what percentage of a player’s Points Per Game come from 3PM. We do want these guys to mostly get their points that way since that’s half of their specialty. And since spot-up shooting is integral in a 3-and-D’s success, the percentage of the threes they made that were assisted (3PM%Astd) is also included.

On the defensive end, like Gomez, we look at minutes played and Points Per Possession Allowed. But we’ve also included their NetRtg (that’s what’s left over after someone’s Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating are subtracted from each other) and how that looks when compared to his team’s NetRtg. Together they should give a solid picture of a player’s impact on a team’s defense.

Also different from Gomez’s post is the inclusion of each player’s stats from 2012-13 and their Fantasy projection for 2013-14 (courtesy of Basketball-Reference). After all, an ideal 3-and-D player would be adept at racking up threes; should be proficient from the charity stripe because he’s a great shooter; will get you some steals and blocks; and, because he handles the ball so little, seldom turns the ball over.

Let’s take a look.

 KYLE KORVER

Effectiveness At 3-And-D

3P%

3PM

3PM%ofPPG

3PM%Astd

NetRtg

PPP Allowed

Minutes

Team NetRtg Differential

45.7

2.6

71.56

96.4

4.4

0.84

2259

+3.5

Fantasy Stats & Projections

YR

STL

BLK

TO

RPG

AST

FG%

FT%

3PM

PPG

2012-13

0.9

0.5

0.9

4.0

2.0

46.1

85.9

2.6

10.9

2013-14

(Projected)

1.0

0.5

1.2

4.4

2.5

44.8

84.3

2.8

13.1

DANNY GREEN

Effectiveness At 3-And-D

3P%

3PM

3PM%ofPPG

3PM%Astd

NetRtg

PPP Allowed

Minutes

Team NetRtg Differential

42.9

2.2

62.86

85.9

7.4

0.87

2201

+1.0

Fantasy Stats & Projections

YR

STL

BLK

TO

RPG

AST

FG%

FT%

3PM

PPG

2012-13

1.2

0.7

1.2

3.1

1.8

44.8

84.8

2.2

10.5

2013-14

(Projected)

1.5

0.9

1.6

4.5

2.3

45.1

82.0

2.7

14.0

MIKE DUNLEAVY JR.

Effectiveness At 3-And-D

3P%

3PM

3PM%ofPPG

3PM%Astd

NetRtg

PPP Allowed

Minutes

Team NetRtg Differential

42.8

1.7

48.57

84.1

1.0

0.88

1943

+0.9

Fantasy Stats & Projections

YR

STL

BLK

TO

RBG

AST

FG%

FT%

3PM

PPG

2012-13

0.5

0.5

0.9

3.9

1.9

44.2

82.0

1.7

10.5

2013-14

(Projected)

0.7

0.5

1.6

5.4

2.7

44.7

80.9

2.2

14.9

WESLEY MATTHEWS

 Effectiveness At 3-And-D

3P%

3PM

3PM%ofPPG

3PM%Astd

NetRtg

PPP Allowed

Minutes

Team NetRtg Differential

43.6

2.4

48.64

67.0

1.0

0.82

2403

+2.0

Fantasy Stats & Projections

YR

STL

BLK

TO

RPG

AST

FG%

FT%

3PM

PPG

2012-13

1.3

0.3

1.6

2.8

2.5

43.6

79.7

2.4

14.8

2013-14

(Projected)

1.4

0.3

1.5

3.3

2.4

43.3

81.9

2.3

15.3

STEVE NOVAK

Effectiveness At 3-And-D

3P%

3PM

3PM%ofPPG

3PM%Astd

NetRtg

PPP Allowed

Minutes

Team NetRtg Differential

42.5

1.8

81.81

93.8

6.5

0.82

1641

+8.2

 Fantasy Stats & Projections

YR

STL

BLK

TO

RPG

AST

FG%

FT%

3PM

PPG

2012-13

0.3

0.1

0.1

1.9

0.4

41.4

90.9

1.8

6.6

2013-14

(Projected)

0.6

0.3

0.5

3.6

0.9

43.3

85.7

3.4

13.1

J. Gomez’s conclusion is that Kyle Korver, Danny Green, Shane Battier, Steve Novak (even if he does play power forward a lot), and Wesley Matthews are the game’s  current top 3-and-D masters. Removing Novak from the mix, because he plays PF so much and because that doesn’t fall exactly within the 3-and-D framework, puts Mike Dunleavy Jr. at No. 5.

But since we’re interested in the projected performance of these guys, and because Shane Battier got a year older, we see the top-five looking like it does above: Kyle Korver followed by Green, Dunleavy Jr., Watthews, and Novak.

(All stars courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com)

Bogar Alonso is a dedicated student of the hardwood, soccer pitch, boxing ring, and tennis court. He is a regular NBA contributor to XN Sports. His work, involving more than just sports, has appeared on The Creators Project, A&E Networks, XXL Magazine, and others. Follow Bogar on Twitter @blacktiles
0 comments