Daily Fantasy Football Values: Week 4

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New York Jets running back Bilal Powell

Sep 22, 2013; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (29) with the ball against the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium. Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

This article has been updated to reflect the values and DPPs of Matt Flynn and Trent Richardson.

Week 3 was a veritable case study in how to secure bang for your daily fantasy buck.

While Jake Locker and Brian Hoyer carved up the Chargers’ and Vikings’ secondaries, respectively, Aaron Rodgers — he of an enormous Week 3 salary — posted an eye-popping Dollars Per Point (DPP) of $1,381 on Star Fantasy Leagues.

Translated: One of Rodgers’ Week 3 fantasy points was about six times pricier than a single Hoyer fantasy point. That sort of discrepancy won’t happen every week, of course, as elite (costly) players will have their all-world performances. It is, however, a lesson in the importance of selective frugality in daily fantasy football.

Here are some of Week 3′s best value plays, as recommended in this space.

Player Dollars Per Point
Joique Bell $292
Terrelle Pryor $505
Brian Hoyer $227
Bernard Pierce $412
Jake Locker $361

There were under-performing recommended plays, as well. DeSean Jackson, Tony Gonzalez, Julian Edelman, and Marlon Brown ended with grotesque DPPs last week. I was most surprised — and disappointed — in Gonzalez, who faced a Miami defense that had given up 15 receptions to tight ends before Week 3′s tilt with Atlanta.

A few quarterback-receiver Week 4 values offers us the chance to stack players against vulnerable secondaries giving away fantasy points by the truckload. Stacking is ideal for tournaments, as pairing a signal caller with a pass catcher offers the boom-bust potential critical to rising to the top of a pool of daily fantasy degenerates.

Beat C.D. Carter in Star Fantasy League’s Double-Up contest and win big this week

Think of it this way: If you use a quarterback and his prime target and they connect for a big day, you’re likely in the money. If they don’t, for whatever reason, you’re likely near the bottom of the tournament rankings.

It doesn’t matter though — finishing 11th in a tournament that pays the top 10 finishers is just as good as finishing 100th. Both lose in equal proportions.

The below Star Fantasy Leagues breakdown, as a reminder, uses the Dollars Per Point (DPP) metric, calculated by dividing a player’s salary by his projected fantasy point output. The lower the DPP, the better.

Week 4 Value Plays

Player Salary Projected Points DPP
Brian Hoyer $6,000 15 $400
Terrelle Pryor $10,348 20.6 $502
Mike Glennon $6,000 11.9 $504
Tony Romo $16,663 22.1 $753
Joe Flacco $13,314 17.2 $774
Matt Flynn $6,250 14.6 $428
  • Hoyer won’t get the luxury of skewering the NFL’s worst coverage unit in Week 4. Quite the opposite, in fact. Hoyer plays a Bengals’ defense giving up the 10th fewest fantasy points per game to signal callers. Throw volume will remain Hoyer’s friend and ally against Cincinnati, a week after he chucked the rock 54 times in an offense void of viable running backs. The dominance of Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon should also be factored in to Hoyer’s weekly prospects. The Bengals’ secondary is banged up, and could be without one or more of its starters this week.
  • Pryor, as of Friday afternoon, is not expected to get his shot at the NFL’s worst defense. Matt Flynn, the foremost expert in clipboard holding, will get the nod. No matter how hard you’re laughing at the prospect, you must consider Flynn a great money saver in the most favorable matchup a quarterback can have. Washington’s secondary is a sieve, allowing 356 passing yards per game. Only the Chargers have allowed more fantasy points to signal callers. Flynn is, crazily enough, a screaming value in daily fantasy.
  • Romo and Flacco represent prime stacking opportunities. They both face brutally bad secondaries this week and neither guy costs too terribly much on Star Fantasy Leagues. Pairing Romo with Jason Witten or Dez Bryant, or Flacco with Torrey Smith (see below) is a savvy play in SFL’s two-QB format.
Player Salary Projected Points DPP
Bilal Powell $7,134 13.2 $540
Bernard Pierce $6,700 11 $609
Danny Woodhead $6,128 9.7 $631
Darren Sproles $10,123 14.9 $679
Trent Richardson $14,988 21.2 $706
  • Powell should be the centerpiece of any Week 4 daily fantasy tournament squad. Last week’s RB11 — finishing with 158 yards on 29 touches — still has a near rock-bottom salary. Chris Ivory — as per usual — is iffy to play against the Titans, a defense that has allowed 20.5 fantasy points per game to running backs in their past two contests. Tennessee’s No. 6-ranked pass defense will put a cap on Geno Smith and his pass catchers. This translates to another monstrous workload for Powell.
  • Richardson is now slated to be a true workhorse back against a laughably porous Jacksonville front seven. Ahmad Bradshaw on Friday was declared out with a neck injury, leaving the Colts’ newest acquisition with a prime opportunity to post stellar numbers. Teams are mutilating the Jaguars on the ground, rushing for an average of 167 yards per game, more than 100 yards per game more than the Dallas Cowboys have allowed on the ground. TRich’s DPP isn’t fantastic, but it’s solid for a high-priced back.
  • Pierce remains a clear value play even with Ray Rice tentatively expected to return from his hip injury this week against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense is ravaged, and opponents know it, as they’ve run the ball an average of 31.6 times per game against the Bills’ front seven. Pierce will likely see double digit touches even if Rice is back in some capacity, limited or otherwise.
  • What’s Woodhead doing on our value chart? Here’s what: Woodhead now has 20 targets, trailing only Jamaal Charles for the lead in that running back category. He’s caught 17 of those targets for 112 yards (6.6 yards per catch). The Chargers-Cowboys throwdown should have plenty of scoring, and Philip Rivers should throw a bunch of quick hitters in response to Dallas’s ferocious pass rush against that suspect San Diego offensive line. Woodhead, who has been targeted on an astounding 27 percent of his routes run, will benefit.
Player Salary Projected Points DPP
Rod Streater $6,295 9.9 $635
Ryan Broyles $6,908 10 $690
Torrey Smith $10,346 14.2 $728
Denarius Moore $6,979 9.5 $734
Kenbrell Thompkins $8,645 11 $785
  •  Streater and Moore — who torched the Denver defense last week to the tune of 124 yards and a score — offer fantastic stacking opportunities with Flynn against that heinous Washington secondary.
  • Broyles, thanks to the piece of pizza that slid off of Nate Burleson‘s passenger seat and cause him to crash his car, will get his chance in Detroit’s offensive machine. Broyles will reportedly not be on a strict snap count, and he claims his surgically repaired knee is ready for a full complement of playing time. Broyles showed remarkable chemistry with Matthew Stafford in limited time last season before blowing out his ACL. Broyles caught six of 13 targets for 126 yards against the Texans on Thanksgiving Day. He’s going to catch a lot of footballs in Burleson’s absence.
Player Salary Projected Points DPP
Heath Miller $3,000 8 $375
Coby Fleener $6,342 7.8 $813
Charles Clay $6,218 7.9 $787
  •  Miller, like Powell, is a dirt cheap option with a real opportunity to post a shiny stat line in Week 4. A potentially big part of a Steelers’ offense that sports the league’s worst running game, Miller gets the Vikings this week. Tight ends have tormented Minnesota through three weeks, gouging the Vikings for 16.3 fantasy points per game, along with six touchdowns.

 

C.D. Carter is a reporter, author of zombie stories, writer for The Fake Football and XN Sports. Fantasy Sports Writers Association member. His work  has been featured in the New York Times.
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