Fantasy Football: Trust or Bust Week 7

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Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller

Oct 13, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller (28) runs against the Cincinnati Bengals during the first half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Bengals beat the Bills 27-24 in overtime. Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

In Fantasy Football Trust or Bust, we will focus on who we deem as trustworthy starts and pepper in a few sits for your Points Per Reception (PPR) leagues.

TRUST

Nick Foles vs DAL

Foles is coming off of a week in which he scored 30 points against a defense that had yet to allow an opposing quarterback to top 17 fantasy points in any week thus far. This week he’ll draw a Dallas team that has allowed four quarterbacks to reach 20 fantasy points, and two to reach 30 points in a week.

In relief work for Michael Vick, Foles has completed 67 percent of his pass attempts and has posted an insane 9.8 touchdown rate on passes thrown. In fact, he’s already thrown more touchdown passes (six) than Vick (five) on 72 fewer pass attempts. He also hasn’t turned the football over even once in his 122 snaps, something critical in a Chip Kelly offense predicated on efficiency.

The  Cowboys, who will also be without DeMarcus Ware, have allowed 14 touchdown passes so far this season, tied for most in the league with the Giants and Jaguars. In an NFC East fantasy point special, look for Foles to stay hot in week seven.

Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline vs BUF

Wallace has had a disappointing start since earning the huge payday Miami used to lure him to South Beach. Entering week seven, Wallace ranked as the 50th best wide receiver in PPR leagues, with fewer catches and yards than fellow free agent, Brandon Gibson. Although he leads the team in targets (44), he’s reeled in only half, the lowest percentage on the team. He’s always been a feast or famine wideout, and 2013 is no different as he has two 100 yard games paired with three games of being held under 25 yards.

Hartline was another player the Dolphins gave a new contract to this offseason, and he’s proven worth it. After building a rapport with Ryan Tannehill last season (74 receptions), Hartline is on pace for another 1,000 yard season and is currently the 31st ranked receiver in catch leagues.

This week they both should be able to make a difference and then some as Buffalo brings in a secondary allowing the 224 yards per week to opposing receivers. The Bills have allowed a pair of teammates to each eclipse double digit scoring in all six games so far, with eight receivers topping 18 points in a game.

Jordan Cameron @ GB

Through four weeks, Cameron was the third highest scoring non quarterback in PPR leagues, behind only Jamaal Charles and Jimmy Graham. Since then, Brian Hoyer was lost for the season and the Browns have turned back to Brandon Weeden. Ignoring the fact that Cameron was fine in weeks one and two with him, owners are fretting that Weeden is sapping all of the 6-foot-5 tight ends fantasy appeal. After seeing an average of 10.7 targets per game in the first four weeks, he’s seen just 11 total the past two weeks.

Have no fear as the Browns travel to Green Bay, a team that has surrendered four touchdowns to tight ends in five games. In those five games, four tight ends have topped 50 receiving yards, with two going over 80 yards though the air. Cameron and Weeden should connect in the same fashion as they did to begin the season.

CJ Spiller @ MIA

This is the week the pain ends, temporarily, at least. Spiller has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of fantasy football in 2013. Largely ineffective to start the season, based on poor line play, misuse, injury and just plain his own inability to recapture the magic of 2012, he enters week seven as the 27th best back. Anything team and scheme related can just about be thrown out of the window, as teammate Fred Jackson comes in as the 10th best back in PPR leagues.

Nursing a high ankle sprain the past two weeks, Spiller has flashed in spurts some of that big play ability. In games versus the Browns and Bengals, two of the better defenses up front, he has 18 carries for 111 yards with two receptions for 11 yards. The involvement in the passing game is key, as he had nine targets in the Bills first two games followed by only three since.

That versatility will be key versus the Dolphins, who have allowed similar combo backs to do damage. Miami has allowed five different backs to top 80 total yards despite not allowing a 100 yard rusher in any game. This is a week the Bills can get the best out of both backs as the use their ability in the run and pass game to attack the Dolphins.

BUST

Colin Kaepernick @ TEN

Kaepernick has totaled just 49.4 points over his past five games since the 31 point start to 2013. Since that 27 completion game with 412 passing yards and three passing scores, he’s averaged just 162 yards passing per game with only one game over 15 completions (16 last week vs Arizona) to go with five touchdowns and interceptions.  He also hasn’t helped owners on the ground, rushing for 20 yards or fewer in four consecutive games.

The Niners head across country into Nashville, and the Titans have not been kind to fantasy quarterback play. Only Matt Schaub has thrown multiple touchdowns in a game and reached 20 fantasy points in a game versus Tennessee. They’ve held four quarterbacks to less than 11 points and haven’t surrendered a passing score since week four. Still hurting for playmakers, the San Francisco offense will continue to rely on their strong run game as a foundation for moving the football, hurting Kaepernick’s ceiling.

Zac Stacy @ CAR

Stacy has been pivotal is stabilizing the Rams offense rushing for 157 yards on 32 carries the past two weeks. In comparison, preseason darling, Daryl Richardson has 167 yards on 58 rushes for the season.

Things will be much tougher this week in Carolina against one of the best young fronts in the NFL. So far, only CJ Spiller has rushed for more than 62 yards versus the Panthers with only two rushing touchdowns total. Not that it matters for Stacy, who has only two receptions, but no back has topped 35 yards out of the backfield as well.

Steven Jackson vs TB

Jackson is finally expected to be back this week after leaving the Falcons week two game with a thigh injury. With Julio Jones lost for the season with a foot injury, Atlanta will look to sustain a more balanced approach on offense in an attempt move the ball consistently.

His return won’t be welcomed by the Buccaneers, who have let only three backs to rush for over 50 yards against them this season, and only LeSean McCoy to top 65 yards on the ground. Tampa also has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season, as McCoy is the only back to top 15 points in a game.

Josh Gordon @ GB

Gordon has been “en fuego” after missing the first two games of the season while on suspension. Since returning, he has seen 43 targets, snagging 25 of those for 429 yards. He’s had at least 70 receiving yards in every game, and has a hundred yard game with both Hoyer and Weeden.

Since being torched by both Anquan Boldin and Pierre Garcon the first two weeks, the Packers secondary has tightened up on opposing receivers. Only Marlon Brown has reached 70 yards over the past three weeks. They’ve been particularly stingy to number one receivers. Although he scored, they held AJ Green to 46 yards on four catches and Torrey Smith (another player entering a game versus Green Bay on fire) to 12 yards on one reception.

Full Disclosure from Week 6

TRUST

PTS

RESULT

Alex Smith

8.02

QB24

Knowshon Moreno

35.4

RB1

Darren Sproles

11.3

RB25

Reggie Wayne

13.8

WR24

TY Hilton

9.3

WR43

Martellus Bennett

12.8

TE6

BUST

Terrelle Pryor

12.64

QB21

Eddie Lacy

13.5

RB17

Trent Richardson

6.3

RB41

Desean Jackson

24.4

WR4

 

SEASON  RESULTS

W

L

TRUST

19

15

BUST

14

9

 

*Stats used were provided from ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer.
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