Daily Fantasy Football Value Plays: Week 10
Dumping a big chunk of your weekly salary cap into a quarterback and watching that signal caller underperform is a special sort of degenerate pain.
I don’t regret going in on Cam Newton and his $18,943 Week 9 salary. He was playing the worst secondary in the NFL — by a considerable margin — and had been on the hottest of streaks entering last Sunday.
I didn’t get my money’s worth, of course, as Newton’s Week 9 fantasy points ended up costing $948 apiece. That’s hefty, in case you were wondering. My other quarterback in Star Fantasy Leagues’ two-quarterback format was Josh McCown, who outscored Newton by about half a point.
McCown’s points cost a cool $470 apiece.
I don’t write this to discourage you from investing in high-salaried signal callers this week, though it’s a reminder that low-cost quarterbacks with the right matchup can be difference-making values. No matter your daily fantasy strategy, quarterback and running back remain the two prime positions on which to skimp.
Let’s jump into Week 10 values, using the dollars per point (DPP) metric. The lower the DPP, the better.
- Keenum, unexpectedly, is fast becoming a volume play. The Texans, with both Ben Tate and Arian Foster ailing, have taken to the air, and there’s no reason to expect that to change against Arizona. It’s not at all a favorable matchup for Keenum — Arizona is allowing a paltry 13.9 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to signal callers — but the price is right.
- Cutler’s groin injury — one that was supposed to take more than a month to heal — may terrify owners this week. His matchup could hardly be better, and Chicago’s horrendous defense will force the Bears to keep up the offensive pace. Marc Trestman would probably like to lean on Matt Forte here and grind out a victory. I don’t think he’ll have that luxury.
- You hate Richardson. I get it. The first round fantasy pick is now in real danger of losing touches to Donald Brown, who stinks just a little less than T-Rich. Richardson, however has seen his SFL price plummet over the past month. It’d be foolish to ignore as much against a Rams’ front seven that has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs in 2013.
- James remains the preeminent value on SFL. He’s the definition of a screaming value, projected for nearly as many Week 10 fantasy points as running backs demanding triple his salary. James ripped Seattle’s front seven for 158 rushing yards last week. Get him into your lineup or perish.
- There’s something to this Foles-Cooper connection — that much is undeniable. Cooper is averaging 115.6 receiving yards in Foles’ three starts thanks to a glut of targets. I admit Cooper’s 9.8-point projection is conservative, but that’s based mostly on the small sample size. Cooper’s salary isn’t all that tantalizing.
- I included White because his Week 10 salary is laughably low. Though there’s still question as to whether he’ll suit up against Seattle, you should keep him firmly on your daily fantasy radar. White won’t have to post gaudy numbers to prove a value play this week.
- You’ll never again get to buy Hilton at his low Week 9 price. I hope you took full advantage. Hilton’s Week 10 salary is by no means outrageous. With a dozen targets almost certain, Hilton sports the same sort of upside as the game’s elite pass catchers.
- I tried, with little success, to mine SFL for a supreme Week 10 tight end value. Wright and Graham, both of whom I wrote about extensively, were the best I could find. Both tight ends have a fairly low fantasy floor, so buyer beware. A side note on tight ends: Jimmy Graham has a mouth-watering matchup against a Dallas defense allowing 10.7 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends. Graham’s DPP, however, sits at a big, fat $1,058.