Fantasy Hockey: Power Play Point Potential Rankings

Los Angeles Kings center Tyler Toffoli

November 9, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Kings center Tyler Toffoli (73) is congratulated after scoring a goal against the Vancouver Canucks during the first period at Staples Center. Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Now that the sample size gets larger, the Power Play Point Potential Rankings are becoming more accurate and trends are stabilizing. You can feel confident that the Calgary Flames are indeed an ideal matchup for opposing power play units, while once again this season the Boston Bruins are not.

You can download this week’s Power Play Point Potential Rankings below:

Defensive PPPP Rankings

Offensive PPPP Rankings

Last Week’s Defensive PPPP Rankings

Last Week’s Offensive PPPP Rankings

2013 PPPP Rankings and Power Play Statistics

*Statistics through November 10th, 2013.

 

Getting Defensive

  • The New York Islanders’ penalty kill has been rotten. They’re currently the most favorable matchup in the defensive rankings, while on October 24th they ranked 23rd. What happened?
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are trending in the wrong direction, they have climbed a whopping nine spots, which makes them a modestly favorable matchup currently. They should stabilizing, but take note if they continue to struggle.
  • St. Louis is improving, as expected. They have improved their penalty kill percentage almost five whole points and cut their goals against shorthanded per 60 minutes almost in half. They should continue to fall after their rough start.
  • Chicago cannot seem to kick their ranking and get on the right track shorthanded. They have improved across the board statistically, but still stand as the second most favorable matchup. They have played just a single game with less than five total goals.
  • Pekka Rinne‘s injury is likely the reason for the Predators climb in the rankings. Despite less time shorthanded, they are giving up more goals and their penalty kill dropped over 3.5 percent, expect this trend to continue until Rinne returns.
  • Continue to look to Alberta matchups for power play success. The Oilers and Flames continue to be among the league’s most favorable matchups. You can include Anaheim, Minnesota, Columbus and Phoenix in that mix.
  • Likewise, the Avalanche, Canucks, Capitals, Bruins, Sharks and Canadiens continue to be among the most difficult matchups and there is no reason to project any drastic change.

 

On the Offense

  • Washington remains atop the NHL in the offensive rankings. Minnesota, Montreal, St. Louis and Chicago round out the top five units. However, their remains a significant gap between the Capitals and the rest of the league.
  • The Lightning were already in the midst of a power play free fall, but without Steven Stamkos going forward they’ll have a tough time hovering in the top half of the league. Time will only tell the impact his injury will have, it is impossible to project.
  • The Bruins are finally showing signs of having a power play. Their percentage has climbed almost six points and they are above the league average in the rankings. This is a trend to monitor, because there is additional value if the Bruins have figured it out.
  • Phoenix’s power play has also been on the rise. They boast two of the most offensively gifted blue liners in the league and currently sit tenth in the rankings. They boast a number of under the radar fantasy assets.
  • The Red Wings’ power play has hit a serious drought, but there is enough talent and the favorable Eastern Conference schedule to expect them to begin climbing the rankings. They’re better than suggested in the rankings.
  • As a number of teams have moved up and down around them, the Kings have just kept on keeping on. With modest improvements statistically, they currently sit as a top ten team in the rankings.
  • The Islanders’ power play is going the way of their penalty kill. Although, still scoring at over a twenty percent clip, they have fallen nine points in the rankings and are just over the league average. They’re closer to an above average team, than an elite one.
  • Finally, the Ducks’ power play is beginning to show signs. The same cannot be said for the Canucks and Flyers, meanwhile, the Jets and Panthers have joined the recently mentioned in the basement of the offensive rankings.

 

Player Notes

Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles Kings: A surprise cut out of camp, Toffoli is back and scoring like he has done at every stop in his hockey career. Expect more of the same going forward from Toffoli, he can score.

Ryan Callahan, New York Rangers: Available in almost half of Yahoo! leagues, Callahan is a stat filler, who contributes in all categories and is a must own in leagues with hits and blocked shots. He is a top 20 winger in a lot of formats.

Cam Fowler, Anaheim Ducks: With 214 games in the NHL, yet just 22, Fowler might be finally putting it all together. His four power play points in the last two weeks should have him on your fantasy radar.

Marcus Johansson, Washington Capitals: Losing top line minutes with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom hurts, but he is still on the top power play unit and could return to that top line anytime.

Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers: John Tortorella said he couldn’t play with the man advantage last season, his recent power play surge of four points in seven games would suggest otherwise.

Philip Larsen, Edmonton Oilers: I wouldn’t expect him to continue a point-per-game pace, or help your plus minus rating, but he could fill in nicely for an injured Justin Schultz.

Dustin Penner, Anaheim Ducks: Quietly having an amazing season, Penner is sporting a point-per-game, plus 18 rating and seeing optimal offensively opportunities with the Ducks. He should be owned in more leagues.

Troy Brouwer, Washington Capitals: Getting top power play minutes with the PPPP Ranking’s top unit is reason enough to own Brouwer. His ability to contribute in all categories makes his lower ownership percentage surprising.

Erik Johnson, Colorado Avalanche: The former first overall pick in 2006 is set to have his best season since 2009. The Aves are an improved hockey team and Johnson is thriving as their best defender.

Clarke MacArthur, Ottawa Senators: A comfy role alongside Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan has helped MacArthur get rolling, his top power play unit minutes are huge. He could have a career year if his role doesn’t change.

 

The Week at a Glance

Tuesday, November 12th – Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals: Far away the league’s best power play unit gets a favorable matchup at home. The Jackets give up over eight goals per 60 minutes shorthanded.

Tuesday, November 12th - Nashville Predators at New York Islanders: The Islanders are the league’s most favorable matchup, while the Preds have climbed into the top half of the leagues offensive rankings.

Tuesday, November 12th - San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames: San Jose has dropped their last five, but expect a solid outing and special teams mismatch in their favor in this one.

Tuesday, November 12th - Anaheim Ducks at Florida Panthers: Slowly but surely, the Ducks are beginning to score with the man advantage. Their power play should score against the lowly Panthers.

Wednesday, November 13th – Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild: The Wild’s power play is dominant, while the Leafs’ penalty kill is heading in the wrong direction. Both teams have favorable power play matchups in this one.

Wednesday, November 13th – Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins: The Flyers will be on the wrong end of a back-to-back and face one of the league’s best power plays in this one. Expect plenty of opportunities for both power play units too.

Thursday, November 14th – Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders: Pick on the favorable matchups whenever possible and it is even better when you can roll with a top ten team in the offensive rankings.

Thursday, November 14th – Phoenix Coyotes at Chicago Blackhawks: The perfect storm for offense here, as both teams are top ten favorable matchups, who boast top ten offensive rankings. Should we set the bar at nine goals?

Friday, November 15th – Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets: The Jackets, as mentioned are a great matchup for the Habs, who currently sit as the third best team in the offensive rankings.

Friday, November 15th – Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild: The Panthers will be hard pressed to slow down the league’s second best offesnively ranked team. The Wild are averaging over 9 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage.

Saturday, November 16th – Carolina Hurricanes at St. Louis Blues: Carolina is an above average team in the defensive rankings, but on the road in St. Louis is a difficult task. The Blues sit fourth in the offensive rankings.

Saturday, November 16th – Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders: Until the Islanders prove they aren’t the most favorable matchup going, why not roll out all their opponents? The Red Wings are better than their current ranking too.

These rankings use statistics from Hockey Analysis and David JohnsonFor more information on the Rankings, their history and the data included, check back to the original breakdown here on XN Sports. The inclusion of goals for and goals against per 60 minutes are telling additions and David’s work at Hockey Analysis is fantastic.

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Neil Parker wears the C for The Fake Hockey, in addition to contributing to The Fake Baseball and The Fake Football in more of a Timmy Try Hard role. You can also find my work at davidgonos.com, here on XN Sports and have just been fortunate to launch Fantasy Sport Locker Room.
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