Daily Fantasy Hockey Value Plays: November 25th Updates

Boston Bruins center Carl Soderberg

Oct 19, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; Boston Bruins center Carl Soderberg (34) passes the puck as Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Andrej Sustr (62) defends during the first period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. USA TODAY Sports

This is to help supplement my weekly preview by looking at individual games each day.

First things first, I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalie’s go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values).

Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins

This is a battle of the two Eastern Conference heavyweights. While it’s a good game to watch, it’s tough to pick a specific player, or team with confidence. Lower-priced players should be the focus in this game, big names notwithstanding.

In the first game this year, Boston matched their top two lines against Pittsburgh’s top two lines. In that sense, Boston’s third line seems to be a good source of value, especially Reilly Smith.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Reilly Smith

(BOS)

$5650

Carl Soderberg (BOS)

$7850

Jussi Jokinen

(PIT)

$8300

Matt Niskanen

(PIT)

$5800

Chris Kelly

(BOS)

$5100

Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs

The Blue Jackets have allowed four or more goals in four of their last seven road games and have given up at least four power plays in four of their last five games.

James Reimer is already set to start for Toronto, is coming off a 49-save win, and Columbus hasn’t had more than 25 shots on goal in five straight games. I wouldn’t be afraid to have a few of the higher-priced Leafs in my lineup tonight.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Phil Kessel

(TOR)
$12,500

Mason Raymond

(TOR)

$7750

Ryan Johansen

(CBJ)

$7500

Morgan Rielly

(TOR)

$6000

Nik Kulemin

(TOR)

$6100

 

Winnipeg Jets at New Jersey Devils

The Jets have scored just 11 goals in their last seven games away from home and their power play is 1-for-23 over that stretch of road games. This game is all about New Jersey and goaltending.

On the flipside, this is the dreaded “first game home after a road trip” game for New Jersey. There probably isn’t much truth to that, though, as the Devils have scored 16 goals in six games following a road game this year, and are 3-1-2 in as a team in those games.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Damien Brunner

(NJD)

$7050

Patrik Elias

(NJD)

$9300

Travis Zajac

(NJD)

$7400

Andy Greene

(NJD)

$7800

Dainius Zubrus

(NJD)

$6300

New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning

The Rangers have really turned their fortunes around as of late on the road, after starting 3-6 on the road, they have gone 5-0 in their last five road games, allowing just six goals over that stretch. If you want to pay for Henrik Lundqvist, I couldn’t argue with that.

The Lightning have scored just 12 goals in six games since losing Steven Stamkos, after scoring three or more goals in seven of eight games before than November 11th game. Expect a low-scoring game either way, so don’t spend a ton of money on anyone not named Lundqvist.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Teddy Purcell

(TBL)

$7700

Chris Kreider

(NYR)

$7100

Valtteri Filppula

(TBL)

$7900

Ryan McDonagh

(NYR)

$8150

Sami Salo

(TBL)

$5300

 

Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers

The Flyers have scored seven power play goals in their last six games and the top line is starting to click. The Panthers don’t really have an effective shutdown line, so high-priced Flyers players might not be a bad pick. This could be a high-scoring affair, so I would avoid the goalies.

The Panthers met Philadelphia already earlier this year, a 2-1 loss. That game occurred when the Flyers were hanging on by a thread as a franchise. The Panthers are also just 9-13 on the penalty kill in their last five games, a paltry 69.2-percent.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Jakub Voracek

(PHI)

$11,250

Scott Hartnell

(PHI)

$9600

Claude Giroux

(PHI)

$11,650

Kimmo Timonen

(PHI)

$9000

Aleksander Barkov

(FLA)

$6750

Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues

Minnesota has allowed three power play goals against in their last three games, and the goaltending situation is fairly tumultuous (though Nik Backstrom is starting tonight). They had an impressive month, going 9-1-1 so far, but the wins are against teams like Calgary, Carolina, Winnipeg twice, Florida and so on. This is a real test tonight.

St. Louis, conversely, is 9-for-39 on the power play this month (23.1-percent) and has scored at least two goals in 11 of 12 games this month. Also, the Blues have one regulation home loss this year, to San Jose on October 15th. Expect the Koivu/Backes lines to match-up (well, in fact), so look on other lines for your players.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Vladimir Tarasenko

(STL)

$8200

Brenden Morrow

(STL)

$6950

Patrik Berglund

(STL)

$6850

Jared Spurgeon

(MIN)

$7350

 Charlie Coyle

(MIN)

$7150

 

Phoenix Coyotes at Nashville Predators

Phoenix is one of the NHL’s top scoring teams and their power play is operating at a 22.6-percent clip in the month of November, also 30.8-percent in their last four games.

Nashville has been a very feast-or-famine team lately:

  • In their five November losses, they were outscored 19-2 with zero power play goals, and a solid penalty kill at 84.2-percent.
  • In their five November wins, they outscored the opponent 23-11 with nine power play goals and a great 92.3-percent penalty kill efficiency.

The Coyotes have the seventh-most times shorthanded this year, so this isn’t a slam-dunk game either way. In all, if I’m not using bargain players, I’m not using players from this game.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Craig Smith

(NSH)

$7500

Colin Wilson

(NSH)

$6700

David Legwand

(NSH)

$7650

Seth Jones

(NSH)

$7100

Ryan Ellis

(NSH)

$5450

 Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers

Chicago is going to be without Marian Hossa, which moves Brandon Saad up the depth chart, as well as Michal Handzus. They already faced off once, with nine total goals coming in that game on November 10th, so I would avoid the goaltenders here. Chicago’s penalty kill is in shambles, having killed just 12 of the last 20 chances, or a 60-percent efficiency.

Edmonton has scored 15 goals in their last three games with the power play going 5-for-12 over that stretch. The Oilers ran a five-forward power play in their last game, so it’s obvious where the focus is with the man advantage. You better believe I’ll have most of them in most of my lineups.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Nail Yakupov

(EDM)

$9150

Brandon Saad

(CHI)

$8600

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

(EDM)

$9650

Anton Belov

(EDM)

$5850

Brandon Pirri

(CHI)

$6600

Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks

The Kings are a very solid 3-0-1 on the road so far this month, and already have a 5-1 win against Vancouver at home on November 9th. Despite the team success, they have only scored nine goals as a team in their last five games and eight goals in their four road games. If anything, ride the hot hand in net (but check Left Wing Lock to make sure Ben Scrivens is starting).

Vancouver has had a pretty rough November, going 3-4-3 overall and 2-2-2 at home. Goals have also been tough for Vancouver to come by as they have just 13 goals in their last seven games, with six of those coming on last Friday’s game alone. In general, I would avoid high-priced skaters in this game. There just doesn’t seem to be a lot of goals on the horizon.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Tyler Toffoli

(LAK)

$6850

Alex Burrows

(VAN)

$9500

Anze Kopitar

(LAK)

$10,900

Jake Muzzin

(LAK)

$7000

Mike Santorelli

(VAN)

$5550

 

Good luck with today’s games!

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Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions.