Daily Fantasy Hockey Value Update – December 12

Alex Steen fantasy hockey
Alex Steen fantasy hockey
Feb 17 2013 Vancouver British Columbia CANADA St Louis Blues forward Alex Steen 20 during the second period against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena The St Louis Blues won 4 3 in a shootout Anne Marie Sorvin USA TODAY Sports

I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.

Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers

The Blue Jackets are probably the team I’m having the most difficulty pinpointing. In the last 11 games alone, they have: shut out the opposition three times; been shut out twice themselves; won two games by at least four goals; lost three games by at least four goals. They have just about alternated wins and losses for nearly a month.

This team is incredibly Jekyll & Hyde, which makes them bad investment for your money. You might nail Cam Atkinson on a four-point night, or they could get blown out. I’d rather just stay away from this team for now.

It’s quite something to see how bad the Rangers have been this year at times. Less than two weeks ago, they looked unbeatable in a home win against Vancouver. Since that game, they’ve lost four of five and there haven’t been many strong teams in there. I would just stay away from this game altogether.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Ryan Johansen

(CBJ)

$8600

Carl Hagelin

(NYR)

$7500

Derek Stepan

(NYR)

$9150

Nikita Nikitin

(CBJ)

$6150

Matt Calvert

(CBJ)

$6700

Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers

The Habs are coming off a 6-0 beatdown at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings, while Philadelphia suffered pretty much the same fate in Chicago last night, a 7-2 loss.

It’s not to say Montréal played particularly bad against Los Angeles, the shot attempts were pretty close the whole game. One concern is that the power play has gone cold after failing to convert any of their last 12 opportunities. Not surprisingly, the Habs have averaged just two goals per game over that stretch. Their lineup shuffling has continued as well, so expect the line of Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller, and Brendan Gallagher to be skating together once again.

Yesterday I wrote about Steve Mason’s save percentage regressing, and that continued last night coming in relief of Ray Emery and allowing one goal on five shots.

These two teams met early in October, a 4-1 Habs win, but neither squad resembles the teams that played on the first Saturday of the season. The Flyers have turned their season around and are now just three points out of a playoff spot, while the Canadiens are playing much better team defense. I expect Montréal to win, but this could be a low-scoring game. Be cautious here.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Brendan Gallagher

(MTL)

$9700

Brandon Prust

(MTL)

$6100

Brayden Schenn

(PHI)

$7750

Nicklas Grossmann

(PHI)

$5650

Daniel Brière

(MTL)

$6100

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

The Buffalo Sabres are playing .500 hockey over their last five games.

What universe is this? Are we alive? Is anyone really here?

Buffalo has been playing better hockey under new coach Ted Nolan and they’re finally starting to see results. They aren’t scoring many goals – just seven over those five games – but their team defense has been much better and Ryan Miller is still Ryan Miller. One of those wins was against tonight’s opponent, a 2-1 shootout win on Tuesday night.

Ottawa is almost worse than Columbus at being inconsistently predictable. That may be biased because I expected the Senators to be a better team this year, it’s also because they are 5-8-3 in their last month of games.

Craig Anderson is set to start tonight and initially, I had him pegged as a good starting goalie to take tonight. I’m still standing by that, but it would have to be because it fit my budget, and not because I actively sought to build my lineup around him. I don’t particularly like the skaters tonight, either.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Mika Zibanejad

(OTT)

$7750

Clarke MacArthur

(OTT)

$8550

Cody Hodgson
(OTT)

$8250

Chris Phillips
(OTT)

$7000

Ville Leino

(BUF)

$5250

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

After winning four in a row, the Red Wings have now lost three of their last four games (1-2-1), and two of those losses were at the hands of the Florida Panthers.

Detroit just isn’t generating much on offense. On their four-game winning streak, they scored 18 goals. In their last four games, they scored half as many. A lot of this is the loss of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, but some of it is that maybe Detroit isn’t the team some (including myself) thought they were going to be.

Datsyuk is back in the lineup, and was last game too, so that gives the team a little overall boost. At this point, though, I would need to see a turnaround from the Wings before I feel comfortable picking anything more than value plays.

Tampa Bay has lost four of their last five games, scoring just nine goals over that mark.

The difference-maker in this game will probably be special teams. Neither team is penalty-killing very well lately – Tampa Bay is 70.6-percent in their last five games; Detroit is just 66.6-percent in their last four games – so whichever team can convert opportunities with the man advantage will probably win this game. For that reason, I don’t like the goalies, but I will be picking some power players (PUN!).

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Todd Bertuzzi

(DET)

$6200

Valtteri Filppula

(TBL)

$7100

Tyler Johnson

(TBL)

$6950

Jakub Kindl

(DET)

$5650

Alex Killorn
(TBL)

$6900

Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues

Toronto played probably their best game of the year last night, and still lost 3-1 to Los Angeles.

This is back-to-back nights for the Leafs against two of the best teams in the NHL and they will again be without Dion Phaneuf. St. Louis is one of the best teams in the NHL at home. This is a game that doesn’t take much analyzing. Stack the Blues. Also, goalie Brian Elliott is confirmed to start tonight and thought I don’t think he’s that great, he’s very cheap and in a fantastic matchup

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

David Backes

(STL)

$10,950

Alex Steen

(STL)

$14,000

Derek Roy

(STL)

$9250

Kevin Shattenkirk

(STL)

$9000

Vladimir Tarasenko
(STL)

$6750