I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.
There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.
Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.
Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.
Games are color-coded as follows:
Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils
For several games in a row now, the Senators have been alternating wins and losses. This inconsistency is killer in both real life hockey and fantasy hockey; you don’t really have a good gauge of which team will show up on a given night.
These two teams met back in October with the Devils dominating the game pretty much from start to finish, but losing the game 5-2. The Senators gave up seven short-handed opportunities that game and would do well not to repeat that performance tonight.
Ottawa’s second line is the one to target here. In their last game, Ottawa’s coach Paul Maclean was matching the newly-formed line of Ryan/Turris/Zibanejad against the third and fourth lines of the other team as much as possible. If that happens here again tonight, this talented trio could fill the net on Martin Brodeur, who has allowed 15 goals in his last five games (which includes a shutout).
New Jersey needs to stop the bleeding if they want any hope of playoffs. With just four wins in their last 12 games, the Devils find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
I expect an Ottawa win, and it might be by a lot if Brodeur plays like Brodeur has most of this year. For that reason, I like Lehner as my goalie tonight.
|
Top RW Value |
Top LW Value |
Top C Value |
Top D Value |
Bargain Bin |
|
(OTT) $11,300 |
Clarke MacArthur $7450 |
Mika Zibanejad $7250 |
Marek Zidlicky $6850 |
Cory Conacher $5800 |
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers
Pittsburgh came off an improbable win on Monday night against Toronto. Sure, they still have Sidney Crosby. They were still missing Malkin, Neal, and five of their top six defensemen. They’ll be without those guys again tonight in New York.
The Rangers, for whatever reason, have been an absolute mess at home. With just six wins in 16 home games, the Rangers have slid out of a playoff spot behind the Philadelphia Flyers.
This game is too much of a toss-up for me. You can look at it from either side of the coin:
Pittsburgh still has Sidney Crosby and they’re playing one of the worst home teams in the NHL.
The Rangers are playing a team decimated by injuries and lining up mostly prospects and AHL players.
Either one seems as likely as the other, so I will just not be taking either goalie from this game. It’s not looking to be a high-scoring game either, so tonight just isn’t a good night to bet on much of anything in DFS.
|
Top RW Value |
Top LW Value |
Top C Value |
Top D Value |
Bargain Bin |
|
(PIT) $10,600 |
(NYR) $7050 |
Derek Stepan $9450 |
Matt Niskanen $7350 |
(PIT) $7200 |
