Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Plays – January 14

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Tristan Thompson

Philadelphia, PA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Tristan Thompson (13) is defended by Philadelphia 76ers forward Thaddeus Young (21) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers defeated the Cavaliers 94-79. Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday in daily fantasy is always the calm before the storm, because as daily fantasy fans know, Wednesday is the big day for NBA.

Let’s see how we did last night:

Optimized Lineup
Position Player Fantasy Points
PG Goran Dragic 44.6
PG Trey Burke 30.4
SG Randy Foye 11.2
SG Monta Ellis 30.1
SF P.J. Tucker 16.7
SF Chandler Parsons 29.4
PF Kris Humphries 21.6
PF Carmelo Anthony 53.2
C Joakim Noah 34.7
Total 271.9

271.9 was a disappointing night for the optimal lineup, mostly due to Randy Foye and P.J. Tucker not meeting value. Here are yesterday’s value plays with last night’s actual value.

Value Plays Price (in Thousands) Fantasy Points Value
Raymond Felton 5.6 23.7 4.23
Trey Burke 5.7 30.4 5.33
Terrence Ross 4.3 21.5 5.00
DeMar DeRozan 7.9 40.9 5.18
P.J. Tucker 4.9 16.7 3.41
Kris Humphries 4.3 21.6 5.02
Samuel Dalembert 3.5 8.2 2.34
Total 36.2 163 4.50

Yesterday’s value plays were successful, as four of seven met great value, and only two (Dalembert and Tucker) were bad plays.

On FanDuel, the goal is to submit a lineup with more than 320 points. In most GPP (guaranteed prize pools), the winner will always have over 335, and likely in the 345-355 point range. A 355-point lineup is an incredible thing, and is very hard to sustain on a consistent basis, but should you be able to submit lineups in the 300-320 point range, you could win some prizes consistently.

FanDuel uses a roster that is composed of: two point guards, two shooting guards, two small forwards, two power forwards and a center. FanDuel’s scoring is as follows, this is directly from the site’s “Rules and Scoring” page.

Point = 1pt, Rebound = 1.2pts, Assist = 1.5pts, Block = 2pts, Steal = 2pts, Turnover = -1pt

Today, there is only a four-game slate, but nevertheless, daily fantasy sports never rests. The chances for a high scoring lineup decreases with the amount of players available, but still, money can be made. Here are tonight’s value picks, and the optimized lineup. Good luck.

Values

The goal is to get five times the player’s salary in production, meaning that if Chris Paul‘s salary is $10,000, you would want and expect 50 fantasy points. Should this happen at every player slot, the final output would be 300 fantasy points or more, which is just south of what the goal is. The key is to get players who exceed good value, which could bring the total up to 320 points.

Point Guard

Kendall Marshall, LAL ($6,700). Unfortunately, with a low slate and high priced players, the point guard position does not have many options who could be great value, but Marshall is the best bet. He is expensive, but he has been on fire of late, and any point guard in the Lakers’ system will thrive in terms of fantasy. He will need 33.5 points to reach good value, but he has the capability of putting up 35-40 points on a good night. It could happen tonight, as the Cavaliers struggle against point guards, but Marshall’s price is a tad high to be considered a true value play.

Shooting Guard

Courtney Lee, MEM ($4,000). Lee’s minutes have increased in each of the last three games since his return from injury, and in these games he has registered 19.9, 18.2, and 25.2 fantasy points. So, at just $4K, he is well worth the cheap tag. For Lee to reach value, he needs 20 fantasy points, and as you can see, that is not difficult for him to achieve. Despite the fact that the Thunder (Memphis’ opponent) play good defense, Lee is still a good option tonight.

Small Forward

James Johnson, MEM ($4,100). Johnson is still one of the better values in DFS at the moment, although he has cooled down in recent games. There are not many options at small forward in terms of value, which is why a lot of daily fantasy players will end up playing Johnson. He plays well over 20 minutes in almost every game, and has the ability to score when he is on the floor. Tonight, he faces off against the Thunder, but at just $4.1K, he could eclipse value of 20.5 points.

Power Forward

Tristan Thompson, CLE ($5,600). Thompson is coming off one of his worst games in terms of fantasy points of the season, where he only scored 11.6 fantasy points. Tonight he faces the Lakers, who are 23rd in the NBA in giving up fantasy points to power forwards. Expect Thompson to do a little bit of everything tonight, and could be a steal at just $5.6K. He averages 25.1 fantasy points per game, but has exceeded that against teams who do not play great defense. Should Thompson accrue 28 fantasy points, he meets good value.

Center

Anderson Varejao, CLE ($6,800). Despite his high price, Varejao still remains a great value. He is playing a lot of minutes for a big man, and is producing on a nightly basis. Tonight, Varejao takes on the Lakers, who are a wretched rebounding team at 29th in the league, so Varejao should be dominant on the boards tonight. In addition, he has seven multi-assist games in his last ten, and has had a block in eight of his last ten. Varejao is a unique player who can score 25 fantasy points without registering a single point, which bodes well for his value against a bad rebounding team who plays at a fast pace in the Lakers. 35 fantasy points seems like a breeze for Varejao, and that would exceed great value for tonight.

Optimized Lineup

  • PG Kendall Marshall $6,700 CLE@LAL
  • PG George Hill $4,800 SAC@IND
  • SG Courtney Lee $4,000 OKC@MEM
  • SG Gerald Henderson $6,400 NY@CHA
  • SF Kevin Durant $12,000 OKC@MEM
  • SF James Johnson $4,100O KC@MEM
  • PF Carmelo Anthony $9,500 NY@CHA
  • PF Tristan Thompson $5,600 CLE@LAL
  • C Anderson Varejao $6,800 CLE@LAL

Good luck to everyone tonight!

*Remember to check the starting lineups before tip-off, and make sure your players are active for tonight’s games, this column is written with the intent of everyone not labeled “OUT” to be playing*

In addition to writing here at XNSports, my fantasy content can be seen at Pro Football Focus Fantasy, eDraft, and Project Roto. Member of the FSWA and the FWAA and can be reached on Twitter @JoshCollacchi
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