Daily Fantasy Hockey DFS Value Update – January 14th

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Reilly Smith, daily fantasy hockey

Jan 2, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Bruins right wing Reilly Smith (18) slides the puck away from Nashville Predators defenseman Mattias Ekholm (42) during the third period at TD Banknorth Garden. The Bruins won 3-2 in overtime. Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

The Leafs halted their four-game losing streak on Sunday night against New Jersey with a 3-2 shootout win. The Devils were playing their second game of a back-to-back, third in four nights and fourth in sixth while the Leafs were a rested team; New Jersey outplayed them for most of the game. I’m far from considering that game any sort of “turnaround” in their season.

Boston is coming home after a California road trip that saw them lose their first two but take the last one against San Jose 1-0. Times have been a bit tougher for Boston of late as the team has gone 3-4 in their last seven games. What’s starting to hurt the Bruins is their special teams – over those seven contests, the penalty kill is rolling along at just 71.4-percent with the power play at just five-percent. They’re still winning most five-on-five battles, but the margins are being made up on special teams at times.

Fortunately for the Bruins, the Leafs special teams have been pretty bad themselves: over their last 12 games, the power play is 14.3-percent while the penalty kill is 79.4-percent.

This is the third meeting between the two teams and the Bruins took the first two by a combined score of 8-3. I don’t see any reason why the Bruins shouldn’t win this one by two or three, so if you can fit Tuukka Rask, great. If not, there will be plenty of skaters to choose from the Bruins.

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Reilly Smith
(BOS)

$6350

Carl Soderberg

(BOS)

$8600

David Krejci

(BOS)

$9600

Zdeno Chara

(BOS)

$8550

Daniel Paille

(BOS)

$5000

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Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions.
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