Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Plays – January 15

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Al Jefferson

Portland, OR, USA; Charlotte Bobcats center Al Jefferson (25) drives to the basket on Portland Trail Blazers center Robin Lopez (42) during the first quarter of the game at the Moda Center. Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday is here. Any avid NBA daily fantasy fan knows what that means. Each and every Wednesday is the “big money” night for NBA daily fantasy, and for good reason. There is always a deep slate of games, and a lot of prizes to be given away. Be sure to set your lineups tonight!

Let’s see how we did last night:

Optimized Lineup
Position Player Fantasy Points
PG Kendall Marshall 35.4
PG George Hill 19.5
SG Courtney Lee 33
SG Gerald Henderson 24.1
SF Kevin Durant 45.8
SF James Johnson 20.1
PF Carmelo Anthony 31.7
PF Tristan Thompson 33.6
C Anderson Varejao 46.6
Total 289.8

Considering last night was such a small slate of games, 289.8 is not a bad score. But, it could have been much better. Kevin Durant “only” scoring 45.8 fantasy points and George Hill being under twenty prevented this lineup from winning big money, but still should have been profitable.

Value Plays Price (in Thousands) Fantasy Points Value
Kendall Marshall 6.7 35.4 5.28
Courtney Lee 4 33 8.25
James Johnson 4.1 20.1 4.90
Tristan Thompson 5.6 33.6 6.00
Anderson Varejao 6.8 46.6 6.85
Total 27.2 168.7 6.20

Last night’s value plays were incredible. Only one player was below a five value, but was still at a 4.9. All five plays combined for 168.7 points and only cost $27,200. That is a fantastic value of 6.2. Those who played the above five players likely profited big time.

On FanDuel, the goal is to submit a lineup with more than 320 points. In most GPP (guaranteed prize pools), the winner will always have over 335, and likely in the 345-355 point range. A 355-point lineup is an incredible thing, and is very hard to sustain on a consistent basis, but should you be able to submit lineups in the 300-320 point range, you could win some prizes consistently.

FanDuel uses a roster that is composed of: two point guards, two shooting guards, two small forwards, two power forwards and a center. FanDuel’s scoring is as follows, this is directly from the site’s “Rules and Scoring” page.

Point = 1pt, Rebound = 1.2pts, Assist = 1.5pts, Block = 2pts, Steal = 2pts, Turnover = -1pt

Today, there is a massive 12 game slate, and the opportunity for enormous scores presents itself with some very intriguing lineup possibilities. Tonight’s Charlotte vs. Philadelphia game will feature at least four players that should be played in most lineups, and of course the Lakers also play. Tonight, you will need at least 325 points to place in big contests.

Values

The goal is to get five times the player’s salary in production, meaning that if Chris Paul‘s salary is $10,000, you would want and expect 50 fantasy points. Should this happen at every player slot, the final output would be 300 fantasy points or more, which is just south of what the goal is. The key is to get players who exceed good value, which could bring the total up to 320 points.

Point Guard

Avery Bradley, BOS ($5,800). In case you have not heard, Jordan Crawford was traded this morning, along with Marshon Brooks to the Golden State Warriors. The Celtics netted Joel Anthony and draft picks in return. This leaves the Celtics with few options tonight. Luckily for us, Avery Bradley is one of them. At $5.8K, Bradley only needs 29 fantasy points to reach five times value, and with the amount of minutes he is likely to play, that could easily increase. Despite the fact that the Celtics take on the Raptors, who play good defense, Bradley has every opportunity to reach value tonight. Also consider playing the Celtics other guard, Jerryd Bayless, who will see a boost in minutes as well.

Shooting Guard

Terrence Ross, BOS ($4,300). This will be a trend in my column, for those who have known me, I am a big Terrence Ross guy in dailies. It is tough to NOT pick him each time he plays. First off, he starts and plays around thirty minutes a night. Second, since the Rudy Gay trade, he has has incredible value almost every night. Lastly, at just $4.3K, he needs to attain 21.5 points, which he has done five times in his last nine games. Here is the kicker, even when he does not reach value, he is very close to it. I will play Ross almost every night, especially against the Celtics, who rank 17th in rebounding (Ross averages about 4.5 rebounds per game in his last five) and 22nd in turnovers.

Small Forward

James Johnson, MEM ($4,100). I hate to pick the same player at the same position back-to-back nights, but with Johnson facing the Milwaukee Bucks who are 26th in the NBA giving up fantasy points to small forwards, Johnson is still one of the better plays at the position. If you spend cheap at point guard tonight, LeBron James may be worth a look, or even Evan Turner, but for value, I stick with Johnson tonight as he only needs 20.5 points to meet value.

Power Forward

Miles Plumlee, PHX ($5,600). The Los Angeles Lakers cannot defend big men, and rank dead last in rebounding. Plumlee may be one of the best values on FanDuel tonight, as he only needs to attain 28 fantasy points. He has been above that four of his last nine games, and has a good chance to do so again tonight against the porous Lakers, who will be playing for the second night in a row.

Center

Al Jefferson, CHA ($7,900). Placing a player at this salary as a “value” pick is rare, but Al Jefferson faces the Sixers tonight, who cannot defend anyone. Giving up a porous 111 points per game, and are last in the NBA in terms of fantasy points given up to big men. Jefferson will need 39.5 fantasy points to meet value, but against Philadelphia, 50 is not out of the question should he play his normal minutes. Jefferson accrued 50.6 fantasy points against the Knicks last night, and could do the same tonight. Most daily players will play Jefferson tonight, so the risk is a lot lower, if at all, considering his matchup.

Optimized Lineup

Good luck to everyone tonight!

*Remember to check the starting lineups before tip-off, and make sure your players are active for tonight’s games, this column is written with the intent of everyone not labeled “OUT” to be playing*

In addition to writing here at XNSports, my fantasy content can be seen at Pro Football Focus Fantasy, eDraft, and Project Roto. Member of the FSWA and the FWAA and can be reached on Twitter @JoshCollacchi
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