Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Plays – January 16

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Jared Sullinger

Oakland, CA, USA; Boston Celtics power forward Jared Sullinger (7) drives in ahead of Golden State Warriors small forward Draymond Green (23) during the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

After a big night last night, daily fantasy NBA will slow down almost 400 percent tonight. There are not many big tournaments, and for good reason, given tonight’s slate of games. Thursday is usually slower than most, but tonight may be one of the slowest. But alas, fewer games means a higher chance of picking the right players, which means more winnings for those of us who do play. Get your lineups in tonight!

Let’s see how we did last night:

Optimized Lineup
Position Player Fantasy Points
PG Avery Bradley 29.5
PG Ricky Rubio 15.9
SG Terrence Ross 10.8
SG DeMar DeRozan 38.1
SF James Johnson 45.7
SF Evan Turner 35.4
PF Miles Plumlee 13.2
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 59.6
C Al Jefferson 44.6
Total 292.8

Last night was not as high scoring as most anticipated, so 292.8 was not a bad score. But, Rubio and Plumlee prevented this from being one of the better lineups on FanDuel last night. James Johnson, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Al Jefferson were huge parts for most winners last night.

Value Plays Price (in Thousands) Fantasy Points Value
Avery Bradley 5.8 29.5 5.09
Terrence Ross 4.3 10.8 2.51
James Johnson 4.1 45.7 11.15
MIles Plumlee 5.6 13.2 2.36
Al Jefferson 7.9 44.6 5.65
Total 27.7 143.8 5.19

Overall, last night’s value plays were successful, as three of five were good plays and the final tally was a 5.19 value. But realistically, with two players at 2.51 value and 2.36, that was not good enough. Having two duds can mean a vast difference, so mark last night down as mediocre.

On FanDuel, the goal is to submit a lineup with more than 320 points. In most GPP (guaranteed prize pools), the winner will always have over 335, and likely in the 345-355 point range. A 355-point lineup is an incredible thing, and is very hard to sustain on a consistent basis, but should you be able to submit lineups in the 300-320 point range, you could win some prizes consistently.

FanDuel uses a roster that is composed of: two point guards, two shooting guards, two small forwards, two power forwards and a center. FanDuel’s scoring is as follows, this is directly from the site’s “Rules and Scoring” page.

Point = 1pt, Rebound = 1.2pts, Assist = 1.5pts, Block = 2pts, Steal = 2pts, Turnover = -1pt

Today, there is an interesting schedule format on FanDuel. Since the London game is going on as we speak, the slate is two games tonight combined with six games tomorrow night for an eight game slate. This only happens a few times a season, so take advantage of this unique two day slate!

Values

The goal is to get five times the player’s salary in production, meaning that if Chris Paul‘s salary is $10,000, you would want and expect 50 fantasy points. Should this happen at every player slot, the final output would be 300 fantasy points or more, which is just south of what the goal is. The key is to get players who exceed good value, which could bring the total up to 320 points.

Point Guard

Norris Cole, MIA ($3,600). With Mario Chalmers out, Norris Cole has been a value star. At just $3.6K, Cole needs to accrue just 18 fantasy points. In the last three games, Cole has played 35, 52, and 40 minutes. While the 52 minute game is an outlier, Cole is still averaging around 25 fantasy points in the last three. Not to mention, Cole goes against the Sixers, who are dead last in the NBA in defense. If Cole is the starter tomorrow night, he is a must play.

Shooting Guard

James Harden, HOU ($9,300). $9,300 is a lot of money to place on a “values” list, as Harden will need 46.5 fantasy points to reach value. But seeing as Harden only scored eight points in his last game against his former team, call it a hunch that he will perform well. Despite OKC playing very good defense, they do allow the 19th most fantasy points to shooting guards. He is the best player at the position for this slate, and by far the most likely to score over 50 fantasy points.

Small Forward

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA ($4,300). Last night, MKG was in a highlight, but unfortunately for him, it was on the bad side. He was posterized by Tony Wroten of the Sixers. That is what people will think of when they hear MKG’s name. What you should think of it the fact that he is back from injury and played in back-to-back nights. Despite only playing seventeen minutes last night, Kidd-Gilchrist played in 30 the night before, and should be back to that tomorrow night against the Magic who are 22nd in rebounding, and 24th in turnovers, two of MKG’s strengths in terms of fantasy value. He will play good defense, but at $4.3K, he is worth taking as a value pick, needing only 21.5 fantasy points.

Power Forward

Jared Sullinger, BOS ($5,400). The former Ohio State Buckeye is coming off his best game as a pro, with 25 points, 20 rebounds, and 59 fantasy points. This production is highly unlikely for him to reproduce, but he is a good rebounder going against the Lakers. The Lakers are dead last in rebounding, and with Sullinger playing this well of late, he should still get the minutes to produce 27 fantasy points, which is his needed value for this matchup.

Center

Spencer Hawes, PHI ($6,900). Hawes has been a bright spot for the Sixers this season in terms of production, and he has been good to his fantasy owners as well, averaging about 32 points per game. Tomorrow night against the Heat, he will need 34.5 fantasy points to attain good value, which is just two and a half points more than his average. With the Heat being 29th in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 27th in the NBA defending the three-point shot, Hawes should have a better than average game, which makes him a good value play. In addition, Hawes is a much better player at home, averaging 16 points, nine rebounds, and is shooting over 51%.

Optimized Lineup

Good luck to everyone tonight!

*Remember to check the starting lineups before tip-off, and make sure your players are active for tonight’s games, this column is written with the intent of everyone not labeled “OUT” to be playing*

In addition to writing here at XNSports, my fantasy content can be seen at Pro Football Focus Fantasy, eDraft, and Project Roto. Member of the FSWA and the FWAA and can be reached on Twitter @JoshCollacchi
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