In March of 2013, the talk around Boston was that the Red Sox were starting a new era. It was their first season without human paperweights Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez, while several new, high-character players were brought in to change the clubhouse culture. Oh, and there was that whole “not having Bobby Valentine” thing.
Coming off their worst season in more than half a century, expectations weren’t exactly high. All New Englanders wanted was a team that would play hard, be competitive, and serve as a decent bridge for the future stars filling the organization’s farm system. If they contended for a Wild Card spot into September, most of Red Sox Nation would have been happy.
Instead, it became the perfect storm in Boston. John Farrell was the right guy to lead the group. Koji Uehara turned in one of the best seasons for a closer in Major League history. The offense provided enough juice for 36 come from behind wins. The team didn’t lose more than three straight games all season. They led from start to finish, and ended up winning the World Series.
It was more than anyone in Boston could have realistically hoped for. One can’t expect a team to go from last place to World Series champion. It just doesn’t happen that way. This time, though, it happened to be the right group at the right time, and everything just seemed to break their way.
Now, in March of 2014, expectations are a bit different for the Red Sox. With a team that is largely the same as a year ago, they are out to prove they can do it again. But can they?
Offense
The 2013 Red Sox scoring offense was, by a healthy margin, the best in baseball, putting up 853 runs. And they got production from everywhere. The team had nine players appear in 115 games or more, and they all had an OPS higher than .770. Comparatively, the Tigers, who had the second-best offense in the Majors, had only five such players.
Boston will try to duplicate what it did last year with the same core group. David Ortiz will again anchor the lineup and has shown no signs of slowing down, even at age 38. He’s coming off another great season that included 30 home runs, 103 RBI, an All-Star appearance, one of the biggest homers in Red Sox history, and a World Series MVP award. He worked through a sluggish March, but he has never been a good spring training hitter. If he can stay on the field, there’s no reason to think he can’t go .300/30/100 again.
Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Shane Victorino, and a platoon of Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava will fill in the rest of the top half of the 2014 lineup. Pedroia embodies the hard-nosed style Bostonians love and is one of the most productive second basemen in baseball. Nava has become a reliable Major Leaguer who can play in the outfield and mix in at first base when needed. He’ll probably see a bit of work as a leadoff hitter, as well. Napoli, Victorino, and Gomes have all endeared themselves to Red Sox fans after one season, with their personalities and play on the field. Mike Carp has done the same and will be able to come off the bench to the outfield or at first base.
The bottom half of the 2014 lineup will be interesting to watch this year. The Red Sox will get their first full-season look at wunderkind shortstop Xander Bogaerts. The 21-year-old top prospect appeared in just 20 regular season games last year, but became the regular third baseman in the postseason, hitting .296/.412/.481. This year’s third baseman, Will Middlebrooks, will look to rebound from a disappointing season, during which many expected him to lay claim to the position going forward. After going back and forth between Boston and Pawtucket, he has used a hot spring to restore the team’s faith in his abilities, hitting .353/.389/.667 in March with four homers.
And, what may be an even more impressive showing this spring came from Grady Sizemore. The former Indians centerfielder, who hasn’t played since 2011, has opened eyes across the league with his bat as well as his glove. His .310 average trailed only Middlebrooks among Boston players with more than 25 at bats. His performance was good enough to earn him the starter’s job and force prospect Jackie Bradley, Jr. back to Triple-A to start the year.
A.J. Pierzynski is the other new face in the everyday Boston lineup, taking over the catching duties from Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Though at the back end of his career, he should put up similar numbers to what Saltalamacchia did. As long as he is able to handle the pitching staff, which shouldn’t be a problem, he should be a suitable replacement. David Ross provides a great safety net as the backup catcher.
PItching
Heading into the spring, one of the biggest issues that seemed would have to be sorted out would be which of the six Red Sox starting pitchers would claim the five rotation spots. As it was, Ryan Dempster seemed like the odd man out, but his decision to not play this year made for one less choice Farrell had to make.
So Boston will begin 2014 with a rotation that is nearly the same as the one that posted a 3.79 ERA last year. After a dominant fall, Jon Lester has established himself as an ace. In 13 career postseason games, he owns a 6-4 record with a 2.11 ERA. His 20 quality starts, 15 wins, and 177 strikeouts all led the team last season. While he may not be in the same class as the true aces across baseball, he gives the Red Sox a reliable number one.
As strange as it may seem in New England, John Lackey is now a surefire number two. He resurrected his career last year, turning in his best season since 2008. His 10-13 record was deceiving, as his 3.53 ERA was the best on the staff. After coming through in a few big games down the stretch and seemingly enjoying Boston for the first time, fans are starting to embrace him.
Felix Doubront and Jake Peavy make for solid mid-rotation guys. Doubront has endured a rough spring, but he has shown flashes of regular season brilliance. The 26-year-old lefty can rattle off several quality starts at a time and rack up the strikeouts. Peavy is much the same way. He is a league average pitcher at this point in his career, but can still turn in the occasional performance as if he is still in his prime. In his 10 starts with Boston last year, he averaged more than six innings an outing, and turned in a complete game three-hitter against the Dodgers in August.
Boston’s fifth starter is a bit of a surprise. Clay Buchholz is not the typical last-rotation-spot pitcher, but that’s where he’s starting the year. And he may be the Majors’ best in that slot. Buchholz will just have to stay healthy. Last year, he missed half the season because of shoulder problems. But when he did pitch, he was a Cy Young Award contender. He had a 12-1 record in 16 starts with a 1.71 ERA and a K/9 rate of 7.99.
The bullpen will be anchored by Uehara, following one of the most dominant seasons in baseball history. The numbers were mind-numbing. 1.09 ERA. 0.57 WHIP. 12.23 K/9. 1.1 BB/9. A streak of 37 consecutive batters retired and 30.1 scoreless innings in a row. The list goes on and on. It’s not realistic to expect another year like that in 2014, but it’s more than plausible that he will again be among the best ninth inning men in baseball. He’s already started that this spring, not allowing a hit in six innings of work.
The Sox will look to Junichi Tazawa and Edward Mujica to handle the majority of the setup duties. Tazawa served the same role last year, while Mujica was the Cardinals’ closer for much of the season. Tazawa struggled at times in 2013, but made a name for himself in October with his dominance of Miguel Cabrera in the ALCS. Lefty Andrew Miller will return as a late-inning option as well. Meanwhile, Brandon Workman and Chris Capuano will be able to give the team a few innings at a time in relief, and can provide the occasional start if needed.
Outlook
The defending world champions are trying to become MLB’s first repeat winners since the Yankees in 2000, and they’re bringing back almost everyone from that title team. It will be very difficult for things to go as well for the duration of the season as they did last year. They weren’t dealt any disastrous injuries, had 12 walk-off wins, and had the perfect clubhouse makeup. That won’t be easy to duplicate, especially in a division that will be even tougher than it was a year ago. Still, the Red Sox should, at the very least, be a playoff team, and another duck boat parade down Boylston Street isn’t out of the question, either.
