When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Boston Red Sox (Lackey) at New York Yankees (Kuroda)
Lackey makes an interesting pitcher for today because he’s not price among the elite guys but he could most certainly produce elite numbers. I would probably still fade him because starting almost anyone against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium is asking for problems. There are a couple of interesting choices among the bats, though.
Grady Sizemore (OF) – $5413
Daniel Nava (OF) – $4476
Kuroda struggled at times last year against the Red Sox, putting up nearly a 5.00 ERA in six starts against them. I would probably just go ahead and leave Kuroda on the bench for this one. There aren’t many Yankees in the lineup with a long track record of sustained success against Lackey though, so for DFS, I might not go very heavy on the Yankees today.
Brett Gardner (OF) – $4859
