When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Detroit Tigers (Smyly) at Cleveland Indians (Kluber)
If anyone needs a reason to start Smyly tonight, here’s this: J.A. Happ of Toronto went 6 IP with one earned run last week against Cleveland. The Indians are pretty bad against left-handed pitching, I’ll have Smyly in most lineups. I’m not going to go heavy on their lineup against Corey Kluber, though.
Drew Smyly (SP) – $14,714
Miguel Cabrera (3B) – $9344
Kluber is the third pitcher in price on the board today and I’m not sure I’m willing to spend that budget against a Detroit team that has scored at least four runs in five of their last six games. Cleveland is pretty bad against lefties so even on a short slate like tonight, it’s worth staying away from the majority of their hitters.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS) – $6626
