When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Chicago White Sox (Noesi) at Baltimore Orioles (Jimenez)
Both pitchers are avoidable here. There should be lots of runs in this one so the bats are the targets, even in GPP tourneys. Keep watch on the weather, it’s not looking good.
For his career, Noesi has been equally bad against lefties and righties. This year, though, he’s getting hit much harder from right-handed batters; his LD rate is higher against righties while his GB rate is lower. As far as Jimenez goes, he’s getting hit harder by lefties. But for both of these pitchers, both lineups should feast off them (as long as the game gets in).
Adam Dunn (CWS-DH) – $5990
Adam Eaton (CWS-OF) – $5846
Manny Machado (BAL-3B) – $4295
Chris Davis (BAL-1B) – $7556
