When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things I look at before even deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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For those that have been regular readers of this column, or even passersby, you’ll know that full MLB slates can get up to 2500 words here and I finally figured maybe this isn’t the best way to inform the readers about the days’ MLB picks. Most people with families and 9-5 jobs probably don’t have time to read 2500 words every day.
I also wanted to place more emphasis on the players I thought were at the top of their position for a given day. Just simply listing the plays I like out of every games gives no weight to one player over the other.
Lastly, I wanted to place a bit more emphasis on large tournaments (or GPPs). While it’s true, a lot of luck needed to win a tournament with a 1000 people in it, there’s also some measure of skill by knowing which pitchers and which lineups to target.
From now on, this column will feature players/pitchers to target for both GPPs and cash games separately. Each will have their own segment with a bit of explanation at each position. The three options are given to reflect different price points and guys I particularly like will be italicized.
Cash Games
| First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base |
| Mark Teixeira (NYY) – $7155 | Chase Utley (PHI) – $6316 | Erick Aybar (LAA) – $6474 | Todd Frazier (CIN) – $8483 |
| Matt Adams (STL) – $5441 | Aaron Hill (ARI) – $5018 | Starlin Castro (CHC) – $5760 | Matt Carpenter (STL) – $6617 |
| Mike Napoli (BOS) – $5341 | Ed Lucas (MIA) – $3318 | Xander Bogaerts (BOS) – $2793 | Juan Uribe (LAD) – $4778 |
First Base – Teixeira gets a pitcher (Trevor Bauer) who is both walk and homer prone, and from Teix’s strong side. Matt Adams seems to be a very good play tonight as Vance Worley’s floor has to fall out at some point and Adams has been on fire for about six weeks now. I don’t mind Napoli, either, but his floor is a lot lower than Adams.
Second Base – Ed Lucas would be the play at second base tonight for those A) looking for punt options and B) looking for punt options that could be hitting ahead of Giancarlo Stanton. Keep an eye on lineups as they are released. Aaron Hill hasn’t done much this year but he gets a terrible lefty, and he’s typically better against LHP. Chase Utley has a pretty high floor tonight but I don’t know if that lineup gets to Peralta.
Shortstop – Xander Bogaerts is on an awful stretch but he’s still above average in wRC+ against lefties for the year and his price is absolute dirt. Castro has a nice price tonight, my only concern would be facing a pitcher with 3.2 career innings in the MLB (though Holmberg has been pretty bad at AAA this year). I’d like Aybar more if his price were lower or he were hitting higher in the lineup.
Third Base – I’m not a huge fan of the options tonight at third base. Frazier has a nice match-up but I worry about not track record for Tsuyoshi Wada in the Majors. I like Uribe a lot because he’s a guy that matches up well against Justin Verlander (at least in terms of pitches he likes to hit), and his price is pretty inexpensive.
| Catcher | Outfield 1 | Outfield 2 | Starting Pitching |
| Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – $7951 | Kole Calhoun (LAA) – $8708 | Melky Cabrera (TOR) – $6462 | Julio Teheran (ATL) – $22,075 |
| Yadier Molina (STL) – $5222 | Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) – $7551 | Alex Gordon (KC) – $6016 | Sonny Gray (OAK) – $17,362 |
| Chris Iannetta (LAA) – $5187 | Yasiel Puig (LAD) – $7137 | Bryce Harper (WAS) – $5420 | Chris Young (SEA) – $15,757 |
| Jeff Mathis (MIA) – $2576 | Leonys Martin (TEX) – $4876 | Tyler Skaggs (LAA) – $12,807 | |
| Matt Kemp (LAD) – $4757 |
Catcher – Lucroy has a good match-up but I’m never one to pay for catchers (or usually, anyway). Iannetta isn’t a bad pick for a bit of safety but it’s hard being a fan of his because he almost always hits in the bottom third of the lineup. Jeff Mathis has always been a bit better against lefties and has a dirt cheap price, for those looking for a punt play (if he starts, that is).
Outfield 1 – I like Calhoun a lot tonight but that’s a pretty steep price to pay. Stanton has always hit lefties better than righties and that’s been even more true this year, not to mention he has a great price for his match-up. The Jays offense has slowed down but Melky Cabrera is still hitting .321 so far in July. Matt Kemp has a low floor because of strikeouts, but he also has a high ceiling considering how cheap he is.
Starting pitching – There are a lot of good pitchers tonight (Tanaka, Bumgarner, Ryu, Ross) and each one of them have pretty bad match-ups (Tanaka @Cle, Bumgarner @Oak, Ryu @DET, Ross @COL). I’ll take Teheran at Citi Field and Gray at home against the Giants tonight most definitely. With the struggles the Jays have had against lefty pitching this year, I’ll roll the dice with Skaggs. I think there is some upside to Martinez at home to Pittsburgh but that’s for another point in this column. Chris Young at home seems safe but I worry about strikeouts, even against a K-prone team like the Twins.
Large Tournaments (GPPs) – Lineup Stack Targets
- Tampa Bay vs. Vargas – The Rays started the season slow against lefties but that lineup has come around; they are tied for 6th in baseball in wRC+ against lefty pitching. Specific targets include Desmond Jennings, Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, and Sean Rodriguez. Likely, just wait until the lineup is posted and take hitters at the top.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Verlander – The Dodgers lead baseball in wRC+ against righties and are in the top-10 for fewest strikeouts against RHP. The top of the lineup (Dee Gordon, Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez) are musts, but names lower in the lineup like Juan Uribe and Andre Ethier aren’t to be completely avoided, either.
- Miami vs. Nuno – Miami is more of a mini-stack. If Ed Lucas is hitting anywhere ahead of Stanton, he’s probably a good guy to pair with Giancarlo. Don’t forget about Marcell Ozuna, though, as he has a career (small sample, yes) SLG rate of .519 against lefties (141 PAs).
- Detroit vs. Ryu – I don’t like stacking against good pitchers, but that might be a good play tonight because maybe that will be the prevailing public though. The nice thing about stacking the Tigers is that some of the guys that should be used, like Eugenio Suarez and Austin Jackson, are very cheap tonight. Again, Ryu is a good pitcher, so caveat emptor.
GPP Pitchers
- Carlos Martinez (STL) is pretty much a strikeout per inning since he got the nod as a started (18 in 18.1 IP). Of course, length is an issue, but if he can even get to six innings, this could be a good value tonight. It’s not a good match-up, but good GPP pitchers rarely have those anyway.
- Brandon Workman (BOS) is dirt cheap and gets the team that strikes out the third-most against RHP in baseball. Like Martinez, he could get crushed, but for his price and upside, there’s probably not a better GPP pitching option tonight.
Good luck with today’s DFS!
