Week 1 Fantasy Football: Last-Minute Lineup Advice

Arizona Cardinals running back Andre Ellington





Football is back, and it’s time to set your first lineup of the season! Make sure you know all your rules. And most importantly, don’t be that guy who forgets to check his roster.

Andre Ellington is suffering some muscle pain in his foot, and did not practice Friday. An MRI was taken Thursday, and his status for the late Monday Night Football game remains unknown. Because the Cardinals’ 10:20 p.m. kickoff is the last of the week, the wise move is to replace him now. Jonathan Dwyer will step up in his stead should Ellington be kept on the shelf. Larry Fitzgerald (knee) is expected to play.

Bernard Pierce will start while Ray Rice serves his controversial two-game suspension. Baltimore will face Geno Atkins and the stout Bengals defense who ranked fifth against the run a year ago.

Sammy Watkins (ribs) is probable to play Sunday afternoon in Chicago. Rookie receivers always face a tough learning curve, even those taken in the top ten overall. Watkins will line up opposite Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings, who each forced six turnovers in 2013.

Cam Newton (ribs) remains a game-time decision for Sunday’s showdown in Tampa Bay. Newton underwent ankle surgery on March 19, after playing through injury during multiple games to end the season. The Panthers’ offense depends entirely on their field general, as does any conceivable value for rookie beast Kelvin Benjamin. Keep an eye on Newton’s official status as kickoff approaches. There will likely be rain in Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers roll out six new starters on defense.

Tony Romo (back) is probable for what should be an incredible shootout at Jerry Jones‘ AT&T Stadium. Dallas finished with the 32nd best offense in the NFL last year, and lost their three best players. DeMarcus Ware is now a Bronco, Jason Hatcher left for Washington, and Sean Lee took care of any bets that he might play the first full season of his career. He and Romo are signed through 2019, with a combined $138.8 million left on the table. Jones remains the second general manager in Dallas Cowboys history.

Wes Welker and Matt Prater are each serving suspensions, and are not expected to play until week six. That means Brandon McManus should be attempting plenty of extra points until then. Lucky for him, they’re still snapped from the 2-yard line. Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, and Julius Thomas will light up the night when Indianapolis comes to town Sunday. It remains unknown whether Andre Caldwell or rookie Cody Latimer will play much a factor. With Pittsburgh in 2013, Sanders spent 67 percent of his time in the slot, a critical place in the Peyton Manning offense.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will get his first start as a Texan, and all eyes will be on how that affects Andre Johnson. Despite leading Houston receivers by over 600 yards, and making more than twice as many receptions, Johnson was still targeted on only one-sixth of the team’s passes within the 5-yard line. He’s 6-foot-3, people. With Matt Schaub starting last year, the wideout averaged 6.8 catches for 75.9 yards and no touchdowns. When Case Keenum started, the seven-time Pro Bowler hauled in 6.9 receptions for 100 yards and 0.6 scores per game. Schaub did very little to get the ball to Johnson in the red zone, so there is still great reason for optimism among Johnson owners.

Reggie Wayne is back after an October ACL tear, and T.Y. Hilton moves into his third season as a receiver. This should be a very interesting and prolific year for the Colts passing game.

Cecil Shorts (hamstring) will be a game-time decision.

Dwayne Bowe is suspended for the first week because he violated the league’s substance abuse policy. The Chiefs receiver was arrested in November for marijuana possession. Bowe had his second worst season last year, which was his first with Alex Smith. The offense will revolve around Jamaal Charles even more than it already did.

This is the time in the article to point out there is a Minnesota Viking named Tiny Richardson who will be out for the season. The 6-foot-6, 330 pound offensive tackle was placed on injured reserve and will undergo surgery in both knees. This bears no fantasy relevance outside of your team name decision.

The Jets offense should be an interesting experiment this year. Eric Decker came to town and will begin catching passes from Geno Smith this week against Oakland. The Raiders bring seven new defensive starters to New York this week. Chris Johnson and whoever else plays running back have been rumored to be in a timeshare. Look elsewhere unless you’re stuck in the 32-team league where this writer found himself. Oh yeah, the other back is named Chris Ivory and running backs coach Anthony Lynn admitted the old hot hand approach is on its way.

Speaking of emasculated feature backs, St. Louis General Manager Les Snead came forward Friday to shred any remaining confidence in Zac Stacy. Beginning week five of last season, Stacy trailed only Eddie Lacy in carries. The second year back was still unable to eclipse 1000 yards, however. And with that memory still glaring in the rear view mirror, Snead said the Rams offense will be riding the more productive back on any particular week. Enter Benny Cunningham, whose 5.6 yards per attempt sure look greener than the 3.9 that Stacy mustered. Remember when Trent Richardson was able to hide his lack of rookie productivity through touchdowns and sheer volume? Cunningham also outperformed the starter during the preseason, even earning the start for their third contest, in Cleveland.

Stats and data courtesy of pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, and wikipedia.org.

author avatar
Dave Major
Senior Fantasy Analyst for @XNSports. While not wasting immeasurable time as a stand-up comic in New York, Dave Major can be found watching three football games at once and telling people how to live their fantasy lives. If you're out of ideas, use your one phone call on !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');