Week 7 Fantasy Football: Last-Minute Lineup Advice

Carson Palmer Week 7

Carson Palmer has played just two games this season, but is at or near career pace on many key numbers. Against the fourth and 13th-ranked pass defenses, he has completed 64.2-percent of his passes for four touchdowns and no interceptions. Palmer currently possesses a passers’ rating of 100.5. He hasn’t finished a season above 90 since 2006, something he’s accomplished just twice. On Sunday, Arizona will face the Raiders, who are 11th against the pass, but rank 26th in points allowed (26.8 points per game). An intriguing stat, opponents have run the longest drives this season against Oakland (three minutes and 12 seconds per drive). Andre Ellington should remain heavily involved. He has averaged 20.0 touches for 99.2 total yards and 0.4 scores.

Last week against Tampa Bay’s 25th-ranked rush defense, Justin Forsett ran 14 times for 111 yards, Bernard Pierce had 15 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown, and Lorenzo Taliaferro got four touches for 47 yards. Taliaferro got the only receptions of the group, making two grabs for 18 yards. Within the red zone, Pierce made four rushes and scored once, while Forsett had three scoreless carries. Taliaferro was not used in the red zone last week. For the season, Forsett and Pierce each have 12 red zone rushes, whereas Taliaferro has 11.

Kyle Orton has started two games for the Bills this year, completing 66.7-percent of his passes for 303.5 yards, 1.5 scores, and 1.0 interceptions per game. That’s a definite upgrade over E.J. Manuel. In his four starts, the second-year quarterback had completed 58.0-percent of his throws for 1.3 touchdowns, 0.8 interceptions, and 209.5 yards per game. Sammy Watkins should be glad to hear it. With Manuel, Watkins was averaging 8.0 targets for 4.3 catches, 49.3 yards, and 0.5 scores. Now with the veteran journeyman behind center, the rookie wideout is getting 7.5 targets for 4.5 receptions, 57.0 yards, and no scores. C.J. Spiller is averaging 13.5 touches for 56.7 total yards and 0.2 touchdowns. Fred Jackson is doing a little better, using 13.7 touches to create 78.7 total yards and 0.3 scores per game.

Jonathan Stewart has been named the week seven starter for Carolina. A search today for Darrin Reaves on Pro Football Reference will still tell you it “Found 0 hits that match your search.” Mark the writer’s word, there are ways to find this mystical page, but it ain’t easy. After taking over as lead back during week four’s game, the undrafted rookie has averaged 12.0 touches for 35.7 total yards. Reaves has yet to hit pay dirt in his young career. Well, DeAngelo Williams remains on the shelf, and that means it’s time for another exciting episode of “DeAngelo and J-Stew.”  Since Stewart joined the team in 2008, the two backs have played together 66 times out of 104 possible games. Stewart has started 14 games without his counterpart, averaging 17.5 touches for 90.9 total yards and 0.4 touchdowns.

Greg Olsen has been playing through an ankle injury, but is probable for week seven’s match in Green Bay. Last week, the 6-foot-5 tight end caught six passes for 62 yards and a touchdown. Kelvin Benjamin suffered a minor concussion in last week’s game, and has been undergoing league-mandated testing all week. The beastly rookie receiver was a full participant in Friday’s practice, but head coach Ron Rivera says Benjamin has yet to complete the concussion protocol.

Through six games, Brandon Marshall has scored five touchdowns, and Alshon Jeffery has two. Marshall is averaging 4.2 receptions for 50.2 yards, while Jeffery has made 5.2 catches for 82.5 yards each week.

A.J. Green is doubtful for this week, after missing the last game with a toe injury. Head coach Marvin Lewis said “the time is up in the air” for the perennial Pro Bowler’s return. Marvin Jones was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, meaning Mohamed Sanu will dominate the passing game yet again. Last week as Andy Dalton‘s top target, Sanu caught 10 of 14 targets for 120 yards and a score. Giovani Bernard is averaging 20.8 touches for 112.4 total yards and 0.8 touchdowns, while rookie Jeremy Hill has gotten 9.0 touches for 51.6 total yards and 0.6 scores per game.

Ben Tate has averaged 18.0 touches for 80.0 total yards and 0.7 touchdowns in his three starts this season. He leads the Browns with 12 red zone carries, and three within the opponents’ five-yard line. Since Cleveland’s bye in week four, Jordan Cameron has led the team with 12 targets and 135 receiving yards.

DeMarco Murray is first in the NFL with 159 attempts, 792 yards, 471 yards after contact, six touchdowns, 35 missed tackles, and 21 red zone carries. In most categories, his lead over second place is even more astounding. The Cowboys’ workhorse leads attempts by 27.0 percent (LeSean McCoy, 116 rushes), yards by 31.6 percent (Le’Veon Bell, 542), yards after contact by 36.5 percent (Le’Veon Bell, 299), and missed tackles by 28.6 percent (Arian Foster, 25). Murray is on pace to break two NFL records with 424 carries for 2,112 yards. The current records are 416 rushes (Larry Johnson, 2006) and 2,105 yards (Eric Dickerson, 1984). Murray averages 10.3 starts per season, and Joseph Randle is available in 94 percent of leagues.

Mike Klis of the Denver Post Paul Cornick reported Wednesday that Montee Ball‘s recovery from his appendectomy and groin strain will “make it difficult for him to regain his featured-back role this year.” Klis added, “But I do think it’s possible for the Broncos to have a solid running game with Hillman, Thompson and Anderson. Maybe not great. But the great part of this offense is taken care of with Manning and the Thomases, Demaryius and Julius.” Ronnie Hillman has stepped up against the league’s third (Cardinals) and seventh-ranked (Jets) run defenses, posting 21.0 touches for 90.0 yards each week. He’ll get his second NFL start this week, against San Francisco’s fifth-ranked rush defense. The 49ers are also the fifth-stingiest in fantasy points allowed to opposing rushers (11.3 per game). C.J. Anderson took one snap in New York last week, and did not touch the ball. Juwan Thompson got eight of the team’s 32 rushes, but two of five red zone carries.

The San Antonio Spurs traveled to Phoenix Thursday night without Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli, Tiago Splitter, or Patty Mills. Not even famed linguist and head coach Gregg Popovich made the trip. In response, Suns owner Robert Sarver promised to mail gifts to all in attendance. Fans at Ford Field this Sunday will probably not get to see Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham, as they may have hoped when purchasing tickets. No word yet if Sarver plans to extend his gift promotion. In the meantime, Golden Tate will continue to dominate the team’s targets. Over the past three weeks with Johnson either hobbled, playing as a decoy, or dressed in plain clothes, Tate has seen 31 of Matt Stafford’s targets, 19 more than anyone else in the Detroit metropolitan area. During the same time, Tate’s 22 receptions are 15 more than the next Lions player.

Reggie Bush is probable to return after missing last week’s game. Joique Bell ran 18 times for 74 yards and a score, to lead the backfield during the 17-3 win in Minnesota. Theo Riddick is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. In five games apiece this year, Bush has gotten 13.0 touches for 60.6 total yards and 0.2 touchdowns, while Bell has averaged 15.4 touches for 64.4 total yards and 0.4 scores each week.

Eddie Lacy has gotten 14.8 touches for 63.7 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns each week.

Ahmad Bradshaw is averaging 13.5 touches for 76.7 total yards and 0.8 scores, whereas Trent Richardson has used 16.7 touches to produce 67.5 total yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. In the red zone, Bradshaw has nine scoreless carries, where Richardson has run 17 times for two scores.

Toby Gerhart did not play last week, and has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Browns. Last week, Jacksonville’s leading rusher was Blake Bortles, with five carries for 38 yards. Denard Robinson rushed five times for 22 yards, and Storm Johnson got 10 carries for 21 yards and a score. Johnson and Robinson are each averaging 3.4 yards per carry. In the red zone, Johnson has two carries for one touchdown, while Robinson has one scoreless carry for ten yards. Cecil Shorts (hamstring) returned to health a week ago, catching 10 of 16 targets for 103 yards.

Jamaal Charles is averaging 12.8 touches for 59.5 total yards and 0.8 scores. In his last two games, he has used 37 touches to create 192 total yards and three trips to the end zone. During these games, Knile Davis got 19 touches for 125 total yards, and failed to score a touchdown. Outside of handcuff upside, Davis has lost any significant fantasy value.

Knowshon Moreno was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, further solidifying Lamar Miller‘s role as the team’s starting runner. Against Green Bay’s 32nd-ranked run defense last week, Miller ran 14 time for 53 yards and a touchdown. He is averaging 15.6 touches for 84.6 total yards and 0.8 scores. His six carries within the opponents’ five-yard line are the third most in the league. Mike Wallace is tied for 11th in the NFL with four receiving touchdowns.

Jerick McKinnon got 11 carries in week six for 40 yards, compared to Matt Asiata‘s two rushes for a loss of five yards. McKinnon added six catches for 42 yards, and Asiata had one grab for 18 yards. Asiata has all three of Minnesota’s carries within the opponents’ five-yard line, having scored twice.

Mark Ingram is probable to return this week for his first game since week two. Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson, and Ingram should all mix in as New Orleans is wont to do.

Rashad Jennings will miss another game with a sprained MCL, giving Andre Williams another shot as the starting back. Last week against Philadelphia’s 20th-ranked run defense, the rookie ran 17 times for 59 yards. Jennings and Williams each have two red zone scores this season. Jennings has averaged 20.4 touches per game, for 101.0 total yards and 0.4 touchdowns.

Frank Gore is averaging 16.2 touches per game, compared with 8.2 for rookie Carlos Hyde. In the red zone, Hyde leads the 49ers with 15 carries, and five within the opponents’ five-yard line. Gore has just 11 red zone carries, and one within the opponents’ five.

Percy Harvin was traded to the New York Jets, so he will miss week seven in the fantasy universe. Harvin already served a bye for Seattle in week four, and will now face another one in week 11. For a player who averages 8.4 starts per season, losing three games outside of health issues is certainly disappointing to many woeful fantasy owners.

Stats and data courtesy of pro-football-reference, footballguys, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus.

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Dave Major
Senior Fantasy Analyst for @XNSports. While not wasting immeasurable time as a stand-up comic in New York, Dave Major can be found watching three football games at once and telling people how to live their fantasy lives. If you're out of ideas, use your one phone call on !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');