Fantasy Basketball 2014: Week 1 Forecaster

Demarcus Cousins



Christmas. Just … Christmas.

Fantasy football is in full swing, the World Series is providing baseball fans with endless drama, the NHL season is just kicking off, and, of course, shows like The Walking Dead and Arrow have returned to television screens across the country. I mean, come on. What’s better than an hour of zombies, over-dramatic lines and vigilante antics after seven hours of football? Wait, what’s that? You don’t watch those shows? Well then. How about the return of fantasy basketball?

Oh heck yes.

While football is seemingly most fantasy players’ first love, fantasy hoops is easily one of my favorites. Last year was my first full season analyzing and writing about the game, and between daily fantasy and seasonal work, I was hooked. But unlike fantasy football, owners will watch their players face a few different teams each week, rather than just one every Sunday. Or Monday. Or Thursday. Knowing which players are facing which teams is even more crucial in basketball because you’ll be forced to view your lineup each and every evening. So each Sunday here at XN Sports, I’ll be getting my mind off my horrible football teams by previewing the week ahead in fantasy hoops, providing readers with a few teams’ upcoming schedules I like, and the under-the-radar fantasy options that could reap the benefits, and should be in your starting lineups. I thoroughly enjoy stats, so you’ll see a plethora of those. Also, as you can tell, I have quite the vocabulary.

Merry Christmas.

Week 1 Schedule

*Note: Games go from Oct 28th-Nov 2nd

Team Games Opponents
ATL 2 @TOR, vs IND
BOS 2 vs BKN, @HOU
BKN 2 @BOS, @DET
CHA 3 vs MIL, vs MEM, @NYK
CHI 3 @NYK, vs CLE, @MIN
CLE 2 vs NYK, @CHI
DAL 3 @SAS, vs UTA, @NO
DEN 2 vs DET, @OKC
DET 3 @DEN, @MIN, vs BKN
GS 3 @SAC, vs LAL, @POR
HOU 3 @LAL, @UTA, vs BOS
IND 3 vs PHI, vs MEM, @ATL
LAC 3 vs OKC, @LAL, vs SAC
LAL 4 vs HOU, @PHO, vs LAC, @GS
MEM 3 vs MIN, @IND, @CHA
MIA 3 vs WAS, @PHI, vs TOR
MIL 3 @CHA, vs PHI, @WAS
MIN 3 @MEM, vs DET, vs CHI
NO 3 vs ORL, vs DAL, @MEM
NYK 3 vs CHI, @CLE, vs CHA
OKC 3 @POR, @LAC, vs DEN
ORL 3 @NO, vs WAS, vs TOR
PHI 3 @IND, @MIL, vs MIA
PHO 3 vs LAL, vs SAS, @UTA
POR 3 vs OKC, @SAC, vs GS
SAC 3 vs GS, vs POR, @LAC
SAS 2 vs DAL, @PHO
TOR 3 vs ATL, @ORL, @MIA
UTA 3 vs HOU, @DAL, vs PHO
WAS 3 @MIA, @ORL, vs MIL

 

Teams I Like

Sacramento Kings (vs GS, vs POR, @LAC)

-The Kings may finish the year as one of the worst teams in basketball, but they do have some fantasy pieces that intrigue me. Obviously, it all starts with star center, DeMarcus Cousins, a consensus top-12 fantasy pick in drafts. A threat for 20 and 10 every single night, Boogie has three matchups to start the year that should all be very-high scoring. He’ll face a Portland unit that surrendered 45.9 points per game within the paint last year (3rd-most), as well as a Clippers team that allowed 44.5 (8th-most). Cousins is obviously a must-start in all formats.

Read More: 2014 Fantasy Basketball Player Rankings

Darren Collison draws the most interest to me this season. We already know what guys like Cousins and Rudy Gay are, but after letting Isaiah Thomas, one of the most efficient point guards last year, walk in free agency, Sacramento appears to be confident with Collison running the show. He’s capable of strong fantasy numbers, as he averaged a healthy 14.4 points, 6.1 assists and 1.6 steals during the month of January last season. Keep an eye on him this week, as he’ll have a revenge factor against his former team, the Clippers. That bodes well, as last year, the Clippers surrendered a strong 23.3 assists per contest, good for 6th-most in basketball. The Blazers, on the other hand, were awful at defending point guards last year, and despite how good Damian Lillard is, he’s no defender. Only the lowly Lakers and 76ers allowed more fantasy points to point guards last year. During his 35 starts for Los Angeles last year, Collison averaged 14.8 points, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 three-pointers per game. Last year, the Kings attempted 18 triples per game, the fourth-most in the league, and with a bigger role looming, Collison could get off to a nice start in Week number one.

Los Angeles Lakers (vs HOU, @PHO, vs LAC, @GS)

-It’s kind of difficult to not like the Lakers this week, or any week, for that matter. They are the only team in the league to play four games during the first week of the season, and with a fast-paced offense at the ready and some potential shootouts out West, the Lakers may be very fantasy friendly. Last season, only the 76ers played at a faster pace than the Lakers, and don’t expect that to change this week, especially facing four teams that were also inside the top-10 in the league in pace last season. It’ll be fun to see Kobe Bryant back in action, who was seemingly scoring 30 points every night during the preseason. But let’s get to the lesser-talked about guys, shall we?

-With the news that Steve Nash is done for the year, Jeremy Lin becomes an awesome fantasy option at the point guard position. We’ve seen less talented players like Kendall Marshall and Steve Blake have very fantasy relevant numbers in LA last year, and with Kobe back in action, Lin has ample opportunity for assists. During the preseason, he averaged 9.4 helpers per 36 minutes, compared to just two turnovers during the entire preseason alone. Plus, the Lakers will need Lin to log all the minutes he can handle. Lin is still going to play at least 30 minutes a night. He’s been effective off the bench during his time in Houston, but it looks like he’ll be the starting point guard on opening night. In 140 career starts at point guard, Lin is averaging 14.4 points, six assists, 1.5 steals and 1.1 triples. Meanwhile, both Houston and Golden State allowed their opponents to average over eight steals per game last year, so look for Lin to contribute right away in that category. According to Yahoo!, Lin is only being started in 53 percent of leagues at the moment.

-Then there’s Jordan Hill, who is really the only true center on the Lakers roster right now. He’ll be asked to play plenty of minutes, with just Ed Davis and Robert Sacre behind him in the rotation. His per-36 minutes last year were sweet, scoring 16.7 points and hauling in nearly 13 rebounds. Look for him to waste no time grabbing plenty of boards, as the Rockets coughed up 11.9 offensive rebounds per game last season (3rd-most), while the Clippers allowed the second-most offensive rebounds (12.3). And with Kobe hoisting up tons of shots, Hill will have even more rebounding chances this year, and should improve on his 12.7 rebounding chances per game from 2013.

Utah Jazz (vs HOU, @DAL, vs PHO)

-The Jazz have a pretty crowded backcourt at the moment, rolling with guys like Trey Burke, Dante Exum, Gordon Heyward and Alec Burks — who grabs my attention. An underrated scorer, Burks made some serious strides as the season progressed last year, posting 15.1 points, a steal and almost a triple per game after the All-Star Break. Sadly, he doesn’t offer much in the peripherals department, but could be a sneaky source of points this season, and, according to Chris Towers of CBS, the Jazz have a top-three favorable schedule in terms of fantasy defenses for the first week of the year. Houston, Dallas and Phoenix all ranked inside the bottom-10 in the league in points allowed last year. Meanwhile, the Rockets surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards last year, so don’t be surprised if he has a few 20-point outings in Week 1.

Miami Heat (vs WAS, @PHI, vs TOR)

-The number one rule of fantasy basketball? Always, always, target teams facing the 76ers. They were the most generous defense in the NBA last year, allowing top-five ranks to all five positions last season, including power forward, the same position Chris Bosh plays, who is in line for a monster usage year. With LeBron James gone, Bosh could easily get back to his Toronto days. During his time in Miami, Bosh’s highest usage rank was 76th overall, but as the go-to option in Miami’s offense, that number should climb. Below are his usage numbers during his days as the only option in Toronto:

Bosh Usage

Last year, Bosh only touched the basketball about 50 times per game. He’s going to get so much work this year, and has some good matchups to start the year, facing a slower Wizards frontcourt that may not be able to get out on Bosh to contest his three-point game. And, of course, the 76ers were horrible against power forwards, allowing 22.55 points per game to the position (3rd-most), 0.87 triples (4th-most), 12.88 rebounds (4th-most) and, of course, the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. And to wrap it up, a revenge game against a rather weak Toronto frontcourt. Thus far in the preseason, Miami have already been drawing up tons of plays for Bosh, so expect the big year to start well in Week 1.

Teams I Don’t Like

Atlanta Hawks (@TOR, vs IND)

-I view the Hawks as a nice sleeper team out of the East this year, especially with Al Horford back in the fold. But they are one of seven teams to only hit the court twice this week, and the matchups are brutal, facing the Pacers and Raptors, two of the top-10 defensive units from a season ago. Now Indiana certainly isn’t quite the same, but if you’re banking on the big men in Atlanta, don’t forget that Roy Hibbert and David West are still tough players to score on, as Hibbert only allowed opponents to shoot 41 percent when at the rim against him last year, while opponents shot 47 percent at the rim against West. They are tough, physical defenders, and after coming off injury, I’d temper expectations a bit with Horford.

Cleveland Cavaliers (vs NYK, @CHI)-

-Hey, LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are all top-30 fantasy assets, and you’re starting all three. However, if you’re looking for sneaky options in the Cavs rotation, this may not be the week to experiment. Cleveland only plays twice this week, one of which should be a tough outing against former Eastern Conference favorite, Chicago. Anderson Varejao will be the starting center for the Cavs this year, but going against arguably the best frontcourt in basketball in Chicago is more than enough to drive me away from wanting to use him. Also, I wouldn’t throw Dion Waiters out there if you are in a deeper league. We just don’t know how he’ll be utilized quite yet, and Jimmy Butler is a tough matchup to draw up against. On the other hand, it’s an absolute sin we only get to see LeBron twice to open the week, but I digress.

Sleepers

Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (33% started)- With Victor Oladipo out for the next month and Luke Ridnour suffering a right quad contusion, the rookie Payton may get all the work he can handle to open the season. He’ll provide you assists, steals some rebounds and some points, but will likely hurt you in field-goal percentage. Still, this is a starting point guard who will log plenty of minutes, and Orlando wants to run the floor more this year, just a year after ranking bottom-five in fastbreak scoring. Payton is an athletic, quick player who can excel in that role, and he has three games and some solid volume coming his way in Week 1.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons (13% owned)- KCP practiced for the first time since suffering a knee injury, and appears to be on track to open the season as the Pistons starting shooting guard. Pope gets three games this week, one against the Nuggets weak defensive unit that allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to shooting guards a season ago, as well as the Timberwolves, who coughed up the 5th-most. Pope can serve as a nice source of threes and steals, and new coach Stan Van Gundy is fond of his two-guard. During the summer league, he averaged 24 points per game, and in three preseason games this year, he’s averaged 16.6 points, one steal and 2.3 triples per contest.

*Stats provided by TeamRankings and NBA Player Tracking Data.

author avatar
Adam Pfeifer
Adam Pfeifer is a fantasy sports writer for ProjectRoto and XN Sports. He covers the NFL, NBA and MLB. You can follow him on Twitter @aPfeiferRS.