At an anecdotal level, it’s always kind of surreal to see the vitriol that is thrown the way of the elite goal scorers in the NHL not named Steven Stamkos: Phil Kessel is overweight; Alex Ovechkin is a bad captain; Tyler Seguin was shipped out of Boston though he had one fewer regular season goal than Jarome Iginla or Patrick Kane from 2011-2013. That was when Seguin was 20- and 21-years old.
Just google “Max Pacioretty Perimeter Player” and there will be an inundation of results ranging from “he needs to go to the net more” to “he goes to the net.” It’s funny how otherwise reasonable people can reach different conclusions about a player despite there being no more information available to one person than the other.
All the same, Pacioretty is undoubtedly one of the most talented goal scorers in the NHL today. This is why he should be coveted as one of the half-dozen top goal scorers in the NHL outside of the Ovechkin/Stamkos tier.
The Pedigree
Pacioretty is a former first round pick from 2007, when he was drafted 22nd overall by the Habs. He played one year for the University of Michigan (putting up over a point per game), and then joined the Hamilton Bulldogs the following year. After a half season in the AHL, Pacioretty found his way to the big club. He would see time back in the AHL in the next couple of seasons, scoring 25 goals in 82 games while in the minor league.
It wasn’t easy for Pacioretty out of the gate is it can be for some elite talents. In his first 86 games, Pacioretty scored just six goals, and that was through his age-21 season. While he had the pedigree as a talented offensive player – his Hockey’s Future profile is here – it didn’t come to him right away in his career.
Pacioretty’s initial break out was 2010-2011, when he tallied 14 goals in 37 games. What was most notable for fantasy owners was that he took a huge leap in shooting rates: from 2008-2010, Pacioretty averaged 13.37 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5; that number jumped to 18.7 shot attempts per 60 minutes in 2010-211. That was why he was on pace for 31 goals in an 82-game season. That year was cut short, though, due to an incident with Zdeno Chara where Pacioretty was hit into a metal stanchion. Pacioretty suffered a fractured vertebra and a concussion. That incident ended what was a promising season, as he was forced to sit out the playoff run for the Habs that ended in a Game 7 overtime loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins.
His full break out came the following year when he scored 33 goals in 2011-2012, finishing as 1 of 18 players with at least 33 goals that year. He also scored 39 goals in the 2013-2014 season, and that made him just 1 of 9 players with at least 30 goals in two of the three seasons from 2011-2014. Over those three seasons, Pacioretty was just 1 of 13 players with at least 80 goals.
The Misconception
As I mentioned earlier, one argument that always pops up is whether or not Pacioretty is a “perimeter” player. It’s always a weird argument to me, because at the end of the day, it’s fairly irrelevant how goals go in. If a guy scores 30 goals by standing in front of the net, or scores 30 goals by ripping shots from the high-slot, they’re both contributing the exact same thing.
Courtesy of Sporting Charts, we can see where Max Pacioretty scored all his goals last year. This is where the notion of “home plate” comes in handy. In a nutshell, it’s this (via the Let’s Go Flyers blog):
The home plate area describes an area of the ice where a lot of goals come from. They’re high-shooting percentage areas, and are staunchly defended by opposing teams. Looking at Pacioretty’s heat map, and imagining the home plate area in our head, we can see that only six (at most seven) goals came from outside this area. That means at least 84-percent of Pacioretty’s goals came from inside the home plate. This is what it looks like when super-imposing the home plate over Pacioretty’s goals:
Is Pacioretty a perimeter player? When looking at where his goals came from last year, it’s hard to argue that he is. For a reference, this is what Jamie Benn’s heat map from last year looks like:
How dissimilar are Benn’s and Pacioretty’s heat maps? Not very, when looking at it. All the same, Benn is earning a reputation as a hard-nosed power forward, while Pacioretty still gets skewered once in a while for being too much of an “outside” player.
Production
Pacioretty has a pedigree of being a big, talented offensive force, and though it took a while to acclimate to the NHL, he’s turned into exactly that. In fact, since the start of the 2011 season, Pacioretty has a goals-per-game rate of 0.44 (36-goal pace for 82 games). For reference, Phil Kessel has a rate of 0.45. Over that span, Pacioretty is 1 of 9 players with at least 90 goals and 80 assists (Kessel, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Seguin, Kunitz, Perry, Neal, and Pavelski).
Despite a slow start to his career, Pacioretty has proven himself one of the top goal scorers in the league. He’s not a perimeter player, has very good skating and shooting abilities, and takes unblocked shots at a rate surpassed only by Evander Kane. There is a lot to like about Pacioretty, both in real and fake hockey.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Sporting Charts, Hockey DB, and NHL.com
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