Fantasy Football: Steven Jackson and FPPRR Failure

Normally the FPPRR Machine is used for the purposes of good.

Over the past month, we here at Sports Jerks have promoted the receiving value of Reggie Bush, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and even the all-questionable trio of DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews.

It’s time we flip the coin and explore the dark side of FPPRR running back history.

Namely what it means for the receiving prospects for the Falcons shiny, new but used vehicle, Steven Jackson.

Jackson, who just turned a fresh 30 years of age this past July, has been a workhorse back for the past nine seasons. He’s carried terrible offense after more terrible offense in his career and finally gets a chance to play for a perceived winner this year in Atlanta.

While everyone is excited for what finally playing in a high octane offense will potentially mean for his 2013 fantasy value, Pro Football Focus writer Pat Thorman says there’s reasons for brake pumping on those worn out shocks in the run department.

There’s also concern for him in the passing game.

The fantasy points per route run (FPPRR) metric is created with Pro Football Focus’s route running data from 2008-2012.

It’s hard to believe that a player with eight consecutive seasons of more than 35 catches has been so mediocre from a receiving points per route perspective, but the numbers don’t lie.

Jackson has one season of above average production (.29 points per route) in the past five years (when he was 25 years old). What’s more troubling is his total points haven’t even accumulated to great totals despite the crazy volume he was forced to take on in lifting the anemic Rams’ offense.

We’ve heard the rumors from camp that Jackson is going to be used in a joker style role this season. That will be true to a degree, but offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has a history of extremely consistent play calling  and trends when it comes to involving backs into the passing game.

Ironically, Maurice Jones-Drew was stuck in a very Jackson-like Rams situation in Jacksonville under Koetter. In five seasons in Jacksonville, Koetter was forced to call plays for receiving legends such as Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker.

Still, Jones-Drew and the Jags backs stayed consistently steady year to year in percentage of the teams’ receptions.

In his first season in Atlanta, Koetter inherited studly pass catchers Roddy White, Julio Jones and arguably the best tight end in NFL history, Tony Gonzalez. Oh, and the quarterback situation was a little better in the Peach State as opposed to the Sunshine State.

Despite throwing more and with better options, the pass distribution remained even keel for Koetter’s offense between receivers and backs. Using all of that data, Atlanta backs will likely see another 100 receptions as a group in 2013.

Koetter also has a diverse group of backs in Atlanta, and has a role for all of them in the passing game, as evidence by their 2012 breakdown.

The Jackson signing itself signifies that the Quizz Rodgers show will never be a feature act.

He’s still going to have a significant role in the passing game because he was strongly effective as a pass catcher when used as such last season. He gobbled up a snap in route on over 40 percent of passing plays last season, a role that will likely remain similar in 2013.

If you’ve been following FPPRR all along, you also know that Snelling is an underrated commodity in the receiving game.  He has 25 or more receptions in each of the past four seasons. While he won’t devour a ton of snaps, the Falcons staff has shown they have faith in using him in the past and getting him time on the field.

This is insignificant for his fantasy impact, but it’s another small sliver of the Jackson pie.

I’m not naïve enough to believe that Jackson will take over the Turner role to a tee. Turner only ran a route on 23 percent of pass plays last season. Jackson will be used in the passing game more than Turner was, it’s a fact.

How much of an increase in regards to the Turner role will he see is the question.

Using his career averages of 5.2 routes per target and 7.3 routes per reception coupled with a range of snap outcomes, we can get a gauge on what to anticipate from him in 2013.

We’ll use 625 pass plays as the number for Atlanta this season as our guideline, which may even be high number if they can improve on the league’s 29^th ranked rushing attack (ATL called 643 pass plays in 2012).

Even if his usage in the Turneresque role increases to him running a route on 35 percent of the pass plays (a 65 percent increase over what Turner had in 2012) the outcome is pretty middling.

If by some great means he gets Quizz type of usage (maybe due to a Rodgers or Gonzalez injury) things still aren’t exactly rosy.

Jackson is currently being selected as the 15^th overall player (per Fantasy Football Calculator) and the 13^th running back. That’s pretty much a best case scenario finish for me and it’s already included into his cost. I’m never comfortable buying a player at the cost of his ceiling, leaving an owner with little leeway for him falling short.

2013 Falcons RB Receiving Projection:

Factoring in his age, current cost and timeshare, not only with the strong Atlanta receivers, but his backfield mates, Jackson is an easy avoid in 2013.

*Stats for this article were provided by Pro-Football-Reference, ProFootballFocus, and NFL.Com

Rich Hribar

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. Follow @LordReebs !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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