Diamond Mining: ALCS Statistical View on Tigers and Red Sox

It’s very appropriate that the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox will square off in the American League Championship Series as both teams have proven to be the best offenses in the American League in the 2013 Major League Baseball Season. Plus, it seems as if the biggest names in baseball reside with both clubs:

• Miguel Cabrera
• Prince Fielder
• Justin Verlander
• Max Scherzer
• David Ortiz
• Dustin Pedroia
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Jon Lester
• Jake Peavy

It’s a “Who’s Who” of contemporary baseball. Once again, we will take the time to take a closer look at the numbers to figure out which team has the edge in this series.

Be sure to check out our National League Championship Series preview between the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals.

OFFENSE

Check out fangraphs.com for a glossary of terms.

Led by leading AL MVP candidate, Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have proven to be a very formidable hitting lineup that displays both patience and power. Unfortunately for them, the Boston Red Sox have proven to be the most efficient offense in all of baseball, displaying a great balance between speed and hitting prowess. And with questions lingering about Cabrera’s current health, it’s going to be difficult to match Boston’s run production.

In terms of batted balls, both teams possess the highest Line Drive Percentage (LD%) in the AL. Both teams also have similar Home Run Per Fly Ball Percentage (HR/FB%) although the Red Sox have a slight advantage in that category. The Tigers have a higher Ground Ball Percentage (GB%) which doesn’t bode well for them as their lack of speed will be very evident against a Red Sox team that not only has a higher Fly Ball Percentage (FB%–though they also have a higher pop-up rate), but have a much higher capacity to get on base via infield hits.

ADVANTAGE: BOSTON RED SOX

FIELDING

A major key in this series will be an attempt to stop the Red Sox running game. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they possess the worst figures in terms of preventing an opponent’s run game. Meanwhile, the Red Sox catchers rate better at blocking pitches.

Although the Tigers do a better job at turning the double play, the Red Sox have the better arms in the outfield and have the huge advantage in terms of defensive range as can be seen from their +34.5 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR–A defensive stat that attempts to quantify the value of defense using “runs” as units of measurement) over the Tigers. To Detroit’s credit, they were the best team in the AL in terms of controlling the defensive errors.

ADVANTAGE: BOSTON RED SOX

STARTING PITCHING

In terms of ERA- (a pitching metric used in comparing a player, or team, to the league average, with 100 being average. Just like traditional ERA, the lower the number, the better), both clubs have the best starting rotation in the entire AL. But just like the BoSox have a sizable advantage over the second best-hitting team in baseball, the Tigers would seem to have the major advantage in their rotation.

The Red Sox have the higher FB%, but are the best team at forcing pop ups in the AL. Though the Tigers have a higher LD%, they also have a higher GB% and are the best in the AL in HR/FB%–tough to hit home runs off the likes of Scherzer and Verlander.

Also worth noting, the Tigers possess the lowest contact rate in the AL and the highest Swinging Strike Percentage (SwStr%) in the AL.

ADVANTAGE: DETROIT TIGERS

BULLPEN

As tough as their brethren in the rotation can be on hitters, the bullpens are a bit easier for opposing hitters to deal with. Based on their advantage in walk rate (BB%) and ERA-, the Red Sox have a slight edge here.

The Tigers do have a higher GB%, but the Red Sox force more pop ups. Although, the Red Sox have a higher LD%.

Both teams’ bullpen are two of the best at inducing swings for strikes, though the Tigers have the advantage in this category. Tigers bullpen, just like their rotation, have the edge in Contact Rate. Meanwhile, the Red Sox force more swings overall and are better at throwing first-pitch strikes.

ADVANTAGE: BOSTON RED SOX

Intangibles not mentioned are how Scherzer and Verlander will bounce back from a pressured-packed series against the Oakland Athletics where the former pitched out of the bullpen in game four and the latter pitched in the decisive game five. Also, how desperate will the Tigers play as their window of opportunity for a championship is quickly closing? What will be Jhonny Peralta‘s impact on offense? How rusty will the Red Sox bats be?

A prediction has already been made as to who will advance to the World Series–hint, it will be a rematch. Meanwhile, at XN Sports HQ, the site will be mirroring the current state of the U.S. government.

All stats courtesy of fangraphs.com.

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Felipe Melecio

Felipe Melecio was the managing editor for the blog Pathological Hate. He believes that math is your friend and numbers can be fun, especially when it comes to baseball. Keep tabs on all his knee-jerk reactions on Twitter: Follow @pathological_h8 !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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