When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with cash games in mind.
San Francisco Giants (Lincecum) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Cole)
Lincecum has given up just three earned runs in his last two starts but five walks and 15 hits in 10.2 innings to go along with it. At his price, I’ll pass. I’m not sure I really want Giants hitters in an early east coast game, either.
I think I’ll pony up the $16K+ for Gerrit Cole today. I’ve made that mistake a couple of times this year but an early start like this against a team that has been on the west coast since the season started is a good spot to take him. I like some of their hitters to sit dead-red on Lincecum’s fast ball, too.
Gerrit Cole (SP) – $16,340
Pedro Alvarez (3B) – $7310
Ike Davis (1B) – $5979