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Fantasy Football Week 5 Worksheet

Rich Hribar breaks down every game in the NFL to find the best week 5 fantasy football matchups.

Andrew Luck

The opening month of the football season is officially in the books. Now that we have four weeks wrapped up, we can officially move on from the new car feeling of the campaign and throw dirt on the feelings and assumptions that we had over the summer that didn’t come to fruition as quickly as we had hoped for. Let’s hit every matchup of the fifth week  bullet point style.

Vikings @ Packers
9 Spread -9
19.3 Team O/U 28.3
61.5 Plays/Gm 55.8
63.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 72.0
47.6% Rush % 37.2%
52.4% Pass % 62.8%
44.5% Opp. Rush % 53.1%
55.5% Opp Pass % 46.9%

 

  • Teams average 38.2 rushing attempts per game versus the Packers, most in the league.
  • Green Bay is allowing 175.8 rushing yards per game, the most in the league.
  • With his 135 rushing yards last week, Jerick McKinnon became the fifth Vikings’ rookie running back to reach 125 rushing yards in a game.
  • McKinnon had those 135 yards on 18 carries. Matt Asiata has 149 rushing yards on his past 45 carries.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson is being targeted on just 14.2 percent of his routes, which ranks 78th out of all receivers.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight of his 11 starts facing the Vikings.
  • Jordy Nelson‘s target share over the first four weeks: 42.4, 38.1, 25.9 and 43.9 percent for a robust 37.7 share on the season.
  • 38.7 percent of Randall Cobb‘s PPR output (4th highest) is from touchdown receptions compared to 20.1 percent for Nelson (23rd).

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb

Bust: Eddie Lacy, Cordarrelle Patterson

Reasonable Return: Greg Jennings, Matt Asiata, Jerick McKinnon

Read More: Week 5 Fantasy Football Player Rankings

 

Ravens @ Colts
3.5 Spread -3.5
22.3 Team O/U 25.8
68.8 Plays/Gm 74.5
59.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.0
43.3% Rush % 40.9%
56.7% Pass % 59.1%
42.0% Opp. Rush % 40.7%
58.0% Opp Pass % 59.3%

 

  • The Colts have reached the red zone on 18 drives this season, most in the NFL.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw had three career receiving touchdowns on 139 receptions before this season.
  • 73.9 percent of Bradshaw’s PPR points have come from receiving output, the highest reliance on any PPR back inside the top 40 scorers.
  • Justin Forsett has 10 runs of 10 or more yards, tied for second most in the league with Rashad Jennings.
  • The Colts have allowed 17 runs of 10 or more yards, second most in the NFL.
  • Steve Smith‘s target share each week: 24.2, 34.5, 22.5 and 32.3 percent.
  • Torrey Smith‘s target share each week: 11.3, 10.3, 25.8 and 9.7 percent.

Trust: Justin Forsett, Andrew Luck

Bust: Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener

Reasonable Return: Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Owen Daniels

 

Bills @ Lions
7.5 Spread -7.5
18 Team O/U 25.5
62.2 Plays/Gm 68.0
67.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.2
44.6% Rush % 41.5%
55.4% Pass % 58.5%
36.8% Opp. Rush % 40.8%
63.2% Opp Pass % 59.2%

 

  • Golden Tate has at least five receptions in every game this season. He never even had a three game streak with that many receptions while in Seattle.
  • Detroit is sixth in the league in rushing yards allowed (80.8) per game, fourth in passing yards per attempt (5.9) and third in the league in sack percentage per drop back (7.9 percent).
  • Bills are allowing just 71.5 rushing yards per game (3rd fewest), 2.8 yards per carry (2nd lowest) and have yet to allow a rushing score this season.
  • Kyle Orton‘s last start in Detroit was week 5 of 2008. In that game he went 23-34 for 334 yards and threw two touchdowns.
  • The last quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns against the Lions was Mike Glennon in week 12 of 2013.
  • Fred Jackson has 42 PPR receiving points on the season, third most in the league behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Matt Forte.
  • C.J. Spiller ranks 45th in rushing points per attempt (0.40).
  • Sammy Watkins averages 6.2 yards per target, which ranks 43rd at wide receiver.

Trust: Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson

Bust: Joique Bell, Sammy Watkins, C.J. Spiller, Kyle Orton

Reasonable Return: Reggie Bush, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, Fred Jackson

 

Browns @ Titans
1.5 Spread -1.5
20.8 Team O/U 22.8
63.7 Plays/Gm 58.8
66.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.8
47.1% Rush % 40.4%
52.9% Pass % 59.6%
44.5% Opp. Rush % 48.7%
55.5% Opp Pass % 51.3%

 

  • The Browns are the only team in the league yet to commit a turnover.
  • Andrew Hawkins has been targeted on 31.8 percent of his routes, second most in the league at wide receiver behind Jordy Nelson (34.3 percent).
  • Tennessee is the only team that has yet to score in the first quarter this season.
  • Bishop Sankey is now averaging 5.7 yards per touch on the season but only six of his 27 touches have been in the first half of games.
  • Kendall Wright‘s 1.4 PPR points per target ranks 48th out of the top 50 PPR scorers.
  • Delanie Walker‘s 2.2 points per target rank second of all tight ends with 30 or more targets.

Trust: Andrew Hawkins, Jordan Cameron

Bust: Justin Hunter, Delanie Walker, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, Jake Locker

Reasonable Return: Bishop Sankey, Kendall Wright, Brian Hoyer, Ben Tate

 

Bears @ Panthers
2.5 Spread -2.5
21.5 Team O/U 24
65.2 Plays/Gm 61.8
60.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.8
37.2% Rush % 37.7%
62.8% Pass % 62.3%
43.3% Opp. Rush % 39.4%
56.7% Opp Pass % 60.6%

 

  • Carolina is 28th in the league in red zone attempts at 8, converting only three for touchdowns.
  • Chicago is allowing the most red zone attempts per game at 5.0.
  • Matt Forte is the only top 10 scorer at running back yet to score a touchdown.
  • The Bears are the only team in the league without a rushing touchdown yet this season.
  • With Brandon Marshall visibly affected by his ankle injury, Jeffery has gotten 28 percent of the targets the past two weeks opposed to 17 percent for Marshall.
  • 51.4 percent of Marshall’s PPR output has come from touchdown receptions, the highest reliance in the league.
  • Martellus Bennett averages 2.2 PPR points per target, higher than Marshall (1.8) and Jeffery (1.7).

Trust: Matt Forte, Jay Cutler, Martellus Bennett, Alshon Jeffery, Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin

Bust: Brandon Marshall

Reasonable Return: Darrin Reaves, Greg Olsen

 

Texans @ Cowboys
6 Spread -6
21 Team O/U 25
61.5 Plays/Gm 64.0
65.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.5
52.4% Rush % 50.8%
47.6% Pass % 49.2%
40.1% Opp. Rush % 36.8%
59.9% Opp Pass % 63.2%

 

  • 43 percent of the Cowboys yards this season are rushing, the highest percentage for any offense in the league.
  • The Cowboys are averaging 165.0 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yard sper carry.
  • The teams that have faced Dallas are allowing only 98.7 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry to the other teams they have faced this season.
  • Murray’s 83.4 fantasy points from rushing alone would make him the highest scoring fantasy back in PPR leagues over the first month.
  • Murray is only the third back ever to have 20 attempts for 100 yards and a touchdown in all four games to start a season. The others were O.J. Simpson in 1975 and Emmitt Smith in 1995.
  • DeMarco Murray has 17 carries of 10 or more yards through four weeks. He had 32 such runs in 14 games played in 2013.
  • The Dallas DST has two top 10 weekly finishes while Seattle has zero still.
  • Terrance Williams‘ 2.7 fantasy points per taget leads all receivers with 20 or more targets.
  • DeAndre Hopkins averages 11.6 yards per target (4th) compared to Andre Johnson‘s 7.7 (34th).
  • Johnson’s 2.1 PPR points per reception rank 50th out of the top 50 PPR scorers.

Trust: DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Ryan Fitzpatrick

Bust: Jason Witten, Terrance Williams

Reasonable Return: Tony Romo, DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Garrett Graham

 

Steelers @ Jaguars
-6.5 Spread 6.5
26.5 Team O/U 20
65.5 Plays/Gm 59.8
61.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 74.5
41.2% Rush % 33.5%
58.8% Pass % 66.5%
38.9% Opp. Rush % 41.3%
61.1% Opp Pass % 58.7%

 

  • The Jaguars have scored on five of 17 drives with Blake Bortles after scoring on just five of 34 drives with Chad Henne at quarterback.
  • Jacksonville is allowing 2.8 passing touchdowns per game, most in the league.
  • Every team DST has finished inside the top seven against the Jaguars so far through four weeks.
  • Jacksonville has allowed double digit points to every kicker so far this season.
  • Le’Veon Bell is averaging 23 touches for 143 yards from scrimmage per game with five receptions or more in three games to start the season.
  • Antonio Brown has seven receptions of 25 or more yards, most in the league.
  • The Jaguars have allowed 11 passes of 25 yards or more, tied for the most in the league.

Trust: Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Heath Miller

Bust: Toby Gerhart, Clay Harbor, Allen Hurns

Reasonable Return: Markus Wheaton, Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson

 

Falcons @ Giants
4.5 Spread -4.5
22.5 Team O/U 27
65.8 Plays/Gm 68.5
67.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.5
38.8% Rush % 47.1%
61.2% Pass % 52.9%
39.2% Opp. Rush % 42.0%
60.8% Opp Pass % 58.0%

 

  • The Falcons lead the league in yards per offensive play (6.8) and points per offensive play (.498).
  • Atlanta is averaging 4.2 touchdowns per game after only 2.5 per game in 2013.
  • Antone Smith averages 2.4 fantasy points per attempt, highest mark in the league.
  • Devin Hester leads all receivers with double digit receptions in yards per target at 13.1.
  • Roddy White has just a 48.3 catch rate, his lowest since 2006 (46.2 percent). Since that season he’s averaged a 60.2 percent catch rate per season.
  • The Giants are 29th in the league in passing yards per attempt allowed at 7.9 while Atlanta is 32nd at 8.4 yards per attempt allowed.
  • Larry Donnell is tied for the league lead in targets inside the 10-yard line with Jordy Nelson at seven.
  • Atlanta has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in three of their four games and 69 percent of the touchdowns scored this season against Atlanta have been rushing, no other team is above 50 percent.
  • Teams are averaging 153.5 rushing yards per game agianst Atlanta and 16 of the past 17 teams the Falcons have faced have rushed for at least 100 yards.
  • Rashad Jennings had 95 or more yards from scrimmage in three prior weeks to last Thursday.
  • Over the past three weeks, Rueben Randle has 26 percent of the team targets (27 total) and 23 percent of the Giants’ receptions (17), both of those totals are higher than that of Victor Cruz.

Trust: Rashad Jennings, Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones

Bust: Steven Jackson

Reasonable Return: Roddy White, Andre Williams, Larry Donnell

Buccaneers @ Saints
10 Spread -10
18.8 Team O/U 29.3
57.0 Plays/Gm 66.5
66.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.0
37.3% Rush % 37.6%
62.7% Pass % 62.4%
47.0% Opp. Rush % 43.1%
53.0% Opp Pass % 56.9%

 

  • Vincent Jackson‘s 3.8 yards per target rank 50th out of the top 50 scorers at wide receiver this season.
  • Mike Glennon now has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine of his 14 starts.
  • Glennon posted 42 percent (9) of his completions, 45 percent (19) of his attempts, 49 percent (148) of his yards and 54.9 percent (9.9) of his fantasy points in the fourth quarter last week.
  • Tampa has scored on just 25 percent of their offensive drives this season (30th) and are 30th in total offense, 27th in yards per play and 27th in time of possession.
  • Drew Brees ranks 14th at the position in passing points per attempt (.44).
  • Khiry Robinson is touching the ball on 58.9 percent of his snaps since Mark Ingram went down. Ingram was at 70 percent before his injury.

Trust: Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham

Bust: Khiry Robinson, Vincent Jackson, Mike Glennon

Reasonable Return: Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Doug Martin, Louis Murphy

 

Rams @ Eagles
-7 Spread 7
20.3 Team O/U 27.3
65.0 Plays/Gm 67.8
53.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 73.8
41.5% Rush % 36.2%
58.5% Pass % 63.8%
56.5% Opp. Rush % 45.1%
43.5% Opp Pass % 54.9%

 

  • The Rams are averaging 1.3 offensive touchdowns per game, last in the NFL.
  • St. Louis is allowing the most points per offensive play this season (.53).
  • Every quarterback that has faced the Eagles this season has posted top 12 scoring numbers for that week.
  • The Rams are last in NFL in sacks per drop back at 1.4 percent.
  • 45.3 percent of the yards gained against St. Louis have been rushing, the highest percentage in the league.
  • The Eagles have rushed for just 76 yards total over the past two weeks after rushing for at least 79 yards in every game but one in 2013.
  • LeSean McCoy has 39 yards rushing over those two games, his lowest two game total since his rookie season.
  • There have been 17 runs in the league this year that have gone for 39 or more yards, including one by Derek Carr.
  • Darren Sproles averages 1.4 fantasy points per rushing attempt (third highest) compared to McCoy‘s 0.35 points per attempt (48th).
  • Nick Foles‘ .35 passing points per attempt this season rnaks 30th out of all quarterbacks, just below E.J. Manuel and Chad Henne.

Trust: LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, Zac Stacy, Brian Quick

Bust: Riley Cooper, Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles, Jared Cook

Reasonable Return: Nick Foles, Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, Austin Davis

 

Cardinals @ Broncos
7.5 Spread -7.5
20.8 Team O/U 28.3
62.3 Plays/Gm 61.7
63.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 73.3
43.3% Rush % 38.4%
56.7% Pass % 61.6%
39.2% Opp. Rush % 37.3%
60.8% Opp Pass % 62.7%

 

  • Despite not reaching the end zone yet, Michael Floyd has two five reception, 100 plus yard games in his three outings and has the highest aDot (average depth of target, 21.7 yards) of any receiver with double digit receptions per Pro Football Focus.
  • Cardinal wide receiver routes per target have been even keel: John Brown (4.7), Michael Floyd (4.7) and Larry Fitzgerald (5.0).
  • Andre Ellington averages a touchdown once per 53 touches to start his career.
  • Emmanuel Sanders is still the 16th highest scoring PPR receiver despite having a bye week and not having scored a touchdown yet.
  • Demaryius Thomas has 30.8 percent of the Denver targets in 2013, he’s at 24.3 percent so far this season.
  • Peyton Manning has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine consecutive games. If he throws two this week, it will be the third time in his career he’s gone 10 games in a row throwing mutliple scores.

Trust: Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Andre Ellington

Bust: Montee Ball

Reasonable Return: Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders

 

Chiefs @ 49ers
6 Spread -6
19 Team O/U 25.5
67.0 Plays/Gm 64.0
59.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.0
47.4% Rush % 47.7%
52.6% Pass % 52.3%
39.2% Opp. Rush % 34.1%
60.8% Opp Pass % 65.9%

 

  • After allowing 127 rushing yards week 1 to Dallas, the 49ers have allowed 152 rushing yards total over their past three games.
  • Frank Gore‘s 119 rushing yards were his most in a game since week 4 of 2013 and only his fourth 100-yard rushing game over his past 29 games played.
  • Colin Kaepernick has thrown an interception once every 31 pass attempts this season after throwing one every 57.7 attempts the past two seasons.
  • Kaepernick has at least 50 rushing yards and 30 pass attempts in all of his past three games. He is just the fourth different quarterback to have both in three straight weeks.
  • Knile Davis has the second most fantasy rushing points (50.1) in the league through four weeks.
  • Travis Kelce has been targeted on 33 percent of his routes, the most of all tight ends and second in the legaue behind Jordy Nelson.
  • Kelce’s target share per game: 14.3, 14.3, 16.0 and 34.6 percent and his PPR weekly finishes have gone 21, 12, 11 and 3.

Trust: Colin Kaepernick, Jamaal Charles

Bust: Knile Davis, Travis Kelce, Vernon Davis

Reasonable Return: Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, Alex Smith

 

Jets @ Chargers
6.5 Spread -6.5
18.5 Team O/U 25
67.5 Plays/Gm 64.8
61.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 58.8
45.9% Rush % 45.2%
54.1% Pass % 54.8%
34.7% Opp. Rush % 36.6%
65.3% Opp Pass % 63.4%

 

  • Only 19.7 percent of the Chargers offense yards are rushing, last in the league.
  • Chargers running backs have carried 100 times this season for 243 yards.
  • Only 21.7 percent of the yards allowed by the Jets have been rushing, second lowest total in the league (Buffalo).
  • Philip Rivers‘ .59 passing points per attempt leads all quarterbacks.
  • Malcom Floyd has been targeted on just 9.8 percent of his routes, last out of all 86 qualifying receivers.
  • 27.6 percent of Geno Smith‘s fantasy points have come from rushing, the highest dependency at the position thus far.
  • Chris Ivory has played 91 snaps the past three weeks compared to Chris Johnson‘s 73 and has outtouched him 47 to 33 in those games.

Trust: Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen

Bust: Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jeremy Kerley

Reasonable Return: Chris Ivory, Eric Decker, Geno Smith, Antonio Gates

 

Bengals @ Patriots
-1 Spread 1
23.5 Team O/U 22.5
63.3 Plays/Gm 64.8
71.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.5
53.7% Rush % 40.5%
46.3% Pass % 59.5%
31.3% Opp. Rush % 46.1%
68.7% Opp Pass % 53.9%

 

  • The Bengals average 34 rushing attempts per game, most in the NFL.
  • The Patriots have already allowed 190 or more rushing yards in two of their four games this season.
  • Andy Dalton has yet to be sacked in a game this season.
  • Gio Bernard is averaging 2.8 yards per carry over his past 94 rushing attempts.
  • 14 of Jeremy Hill‘s 26 attempts have gone for five or more yards this season.
  • Shane Vereen has played 140 snaps to 114 for Stevan Ridley, yet has 18 fewer touches.
  • Tom Brady‘s .27 passing points per attempt rank dead last for all quarterbacks with four starts.
  • Cincinnati has allowed 20 fantasy points to just six quarterbacks in their past 51 games.

Trust: Gio Bernard, Jeremy Hill

Bust: Tom Brady, Stevan Ridley, Rob Gronkowski

Reasonable Return: A.J. Green, Andy Dalton, Shane Vereen

 

Seahawks @ Redskins
-7.5 Spread 7.5
26.3 Team O/U 18.8
60.3 Plays/Gm 68.0
67.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.5
48.1% Rush % 40.4%
51.9% Pass % 59.6%
38.6% Opp. Rush % 43.2%
61.4% Opp Pass % 56.8%

 

  • Percy Harvin leads all receivers in touches per snap at 15.8 percent.
  • Russell Wilson is second in the league on passing points per attempt at 0.58.
  • Marshawn Lynch averages 5.8 PPR receiving points per game since the start of last season after averaging 3.5 per game from 2007-2012.
  • Last week, Alfred Morris tied career highs in both receptions (three) and receiving yards (27) for a game. Both previously came against the Giants as well.
  • Morris is averaging 11.8 touches in the first half of games this season compared to 6.8 after the break.
  • Seattle has allowed six passing touchdowns so far this season. They didn’t surrender their sixth passing touchdown until week seven in 2013.

Trust: Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch

Bust: Alfred Morris, Kirk Cousins, DeSean Jackson

Reasonable Return: Percy Harvin, Pierre Garcon, Niles Paul

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes

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