Connect with us

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Week 10 Worksheet

Rich Hribar breaks down every game in the NFL to help owners prepare for their week 10 fantasy football matchups.

Sanu


Week 10 features another six teams on bye with many owners surging to lock down a playoff spot. Let’s hit all the remaining games bullet point style.

Browns @ Bengals
7 Spread -7
18.8 Team O/U 25.8
64.2 Plays/Gm 62.2
68.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 71.9
48.1% Rush % 46.4%
51.9% Pass % 53.6%
42.5% Opp. Rush % 40.4%
57.5% Opp. Pass % 59.6%

 

  • The Bengals average 156.2 yards rushing per game at home (most in the league) compared to just 63.3 yards per game on the road.
  • Cleveland is allowing 153.7 rushing yards per game on the road, third most in the league.
  • The Browns defense has surrendered seven top 20 weekly running backs and over 100 yards rushing to every opponent except Oakland.
  • Jeremy Hill is second in points per rushing attempt (0.88) behind only Mark Ingram (0.90) of all backs with 70 or more carries.
  • Hill’s 154 rushing yards this past week were the most by a Bengal’s rookie runner since Corey Dillon‘s 246 versus the then Tennessee Oilers back in 1997.
  • Ben Tate‘s 2.2 YPC ranks last of all 39 players to have 30 or more carries over the past four weeks.
  • Jermaine Gresham ranks last in PPR points per reception (1.7) of all tight ends with 25 or more catches.
  • Andy Dalton has thrown for three touchdowns in three of his past facing Cleveland, but combined for just 299 yards passing in his two meetings last season.
  • The top weekly quarterback finish against the Browns this season has been QB12 by Ben Roethlisberger back in week 1.
  • A.J. Green has at least seven receptions in three of his past four against Cleveland, but has been held under 60 yards receiving four of six career games facing the Browns.

Trust: Jeremy Hill, Mohamed Sanu

Bust: Brian Hoyer, Ben Tate, Jermaine Gresham, Miles Austin

Reasonable Return: A.J. Green, Andy Dalton, Terrance West

 

Chiefs @ Bills
-1 Spread 1
21 Team O/U 20
63.5 Plays/Gm 62.9
59.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.6
47.8% Rush % 41.2%
52.2% Pass % 58.8%
41.6% Opp. Rush % 38.8%
58.4% Opp Pass % 61.2%

 

  • Kyle Orton has been sacked four or more times in each of the past three games.
  • Kansas City has sacked the opposing quarterback three or more times in six of eight games this season and leads the league in sack percentage at 9.7 percent of drop backs.
  • The Chiefs have allowed five offensive touchdowns (39 possessions) over their past four games, fewest in the league.
  • Orton ranks 7th of all quarterbacks with 18.8 passing points per game.
  • The average quarterback finish against the Chiefs since week 2 has been QB23.
  • Last week was the first game since week 3 of 2011 in which Alex Smith did not record a rushing attempt.
  • Sammy Watkins has played on 96.9 percent of the Bills snaps, the highest participation percentage of any receiver in the league.
  • Watkins’ three 100-yard receiving games have already tied Glenn Bass (1961) and Elbert Dubenion (1960) for the franchise record for a rookie receiver in a season.
  • Jamaal Charles has scored a touchdown in 16 of his past 22 games dating back to last season.

Trust: Sammy Watkins

Bust: Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, Anthony Dixon, Bryce Brown

Reasonable Return: Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Travis Kelce, Robert Woods

 

Titans @ Ravens
10.5 Spread -10.5
16.5 Team O/U 27
57.5 Plays/Gm 65.1
69.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.3
40.0% Rush % 42.5%
60.0% Pass % 57.5%
46.2% Opp. Rush % 38.5%
53.8% Opp Pass % 61.5%

 

  • Torrey Smith has three top 20 scoring weeks over the past four weeks.
  • 33.7 percent of Smith’s season scoring has come off of touchdowns, the third highest dependency of all receivers.
  • Smith has still yet to top 81 yards receiving in a game this season.
  • Steve Smith Sr. has been held under 70 receiving yards in four of the past five weeks.
  • Baltimore has allowed 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs only once this season.
  • The Titans running backs haven’t combined for over 100 rushing yards since week 1.
  • Kendall Wright has gone from a touchdown regression candidate to a touchdown dependent player. 24.9 percent of his PPR output is from touchdowns, has yet to register a top 40 scoring week without a touchdown.
  • Five of the past six teams to face the Titans have run 70 or more offensive plays.

Trust: Justin Forsett, Joe Flacco

Bust: Bishop Sankey, Justin Hunter, Lorenzo Taliaferro

Reasonable Return: Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Owen Daniels, Kendall Wright

 

Cowboys @ Jaguars
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
65.6 Plays/Gm 62.4
58.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.7
48.8% Rush % 37.0%
51.2% Pass % 63.0%
42.0% Opp. Rush % 42.6%
58.0% Opp Pass % 57.4%

 

  • Jacksonville allowed 25 receptions for 293 yards and 4 TD to opposing tight ends over their first three games. In the six games since, they have allowed only 19 catches for 191 yards and one TD.
  • Over the past three weeks, Jason Witten has 19 percent of the Dallas targets and four more catches and 53 more receiving yards than Terrance Williams.
  • The last game in which Witten did not play every single snap for the Cowboys was week 14 of last season.
  • Allen Robinson has 49.4 PPR points that have come while trailing in the fourth quarter, which account for 47.6 percent of his season point total.
  • Through six weeks, Jacksonville running backs carried 98 times for 286 yards (2.9 YPC) with two rushing TD. Over the past three games, Denard Robinson has rushed 57 times for 329 yards and two TD.
  • Only DeMarco Murray has more rushing yards (348) than the 329 yards by Robinson over the past three weeks.
  • Dallas is giving up 4.6 YPC, which is 27th in the league and are allowing 0.65 fantasy points per carry, the 8th worst in the league.
  • Murray already has a career high in rushing attempts (225). His previous high was 217 last season.
  • Dez Bryant has been a top 30 scoring receiver in just two of the past five weeks.
  • Bryant has 15 red zone touchdowns since the start of last season, the most of all receivers.
  • The Cowboys have allowed the past three quarterbacks they’ve faced to complete 70% of their passes (3rd worst in the league) , allowed each to top 17 points scored and weekly finishes of 5, 14, and 7.

Trust: DeMarco Murray, Denard Robinson, Blake Bortles

Bust: Jason Witten, Brandon Weeden, Allen Hurns

Reasonable Return: Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson, Cecil Shorts, Clay Harbor, Terrance Williams

 

Dolphins @ Lions
2.5 Spread -2.5
20.5 Team O/U 23
66.5 Plays/Gm 66.4
65.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.6
43.1% Rush % 39.2%
56.9% Pass % 60.8%
40.1% Opp. Rush % 37.5%
59.9% Opp Pass % 62.5%

 

  • The Lions allow 0.26 points per play on defense, fewest in the league. Miami allows 0.29, the second fewest.
  • Miami allows 4.7 yards per play to opposing offenses, fewest in the league. Detroit allows 4.8 yards per play, tied for the second fewest.
  • 50 percent (20 of 40) of Miami drives have reached the red zone over their past four games, highest percentage in the league.
  • Matt Stafford’s last top 10 week was week 4. Miami has allowed one top 10 QB all season and six have finished QB21 or lower.
  • Ryan Tannehill is the only player in the league with a 20 yard run in each of the past four weeks.
  • Golden Tate had 19 percent of the Detroit targets weeks 1-3 (21 of 112). From weeks 4-9 he had 33 percent (59 of 181).
  • Lamar Miller leads all backs with 100 or more carries in points per rushing attempt (0.77).
  • 11 of Charles Clay’s 43 targets this year have been in the red zone. That 25.6% RZ target percentage ranks third in the league of all players with 40 or more targets.

Trust: Charles Clay, Calvin Johnson

Bust: Joique Bell, Matt Stafford, Mike Wallace

Reasonable Return: Ryan Tannehill, Golden Tate, Lamar Miller

 

49ers @ Saints
5 Spread -5
22 Team O/U 27
65.4 Plays/Gm 69.9
57.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.4
44.2% Rush % 39.0%
55.8% Pass % 61.0%
38.4% Opp. Rush % 39.9%
61.6% Opp Pass % 60.1%

 

  • The 49ers lead the league in second half time of possession share at 60.4 percent, but are last in second half scoring at 53 total points (6.6 per game).
  • San Francisco averages 90.0 yards rushing per game on the road as opposed to 149.0 per game at home.
  • Anquan Boldin has been a top 40 receiver in five consecutive games with three top 15 weeks. Michael Crabtree has been a top 40 scorer only twice over the same stretch.
  • Crabtree is being targeted on 20.6 percent of his routes, Boldin 20.0 percent.
  • Frank Gore has one carry inside the 10-yard over the past five games.
  • Marques Colston has been a top 30 scoring receiver just once this season.
  • Facing the 49ers in each of the past two seasons, Jimmy Graham has totaled just 10 receptions for 74 yards.
  • Drew Brees ranks 20th in passing points per attempt (0.44) while the 49er defense allows the 9th lowest points per attempt (0.39) passing.
  • Mark Ingram is first in PPR points per snap at 0.54.
  • 39.2 percent of Ingram’s point total is from touchdowns, the highest percentage of any back in the top 24 scorers.
  • Brandin Cooks‘ PPR finishes at home this season have been WR23, WR17 and WR7.

Trust: Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, Brandin Cooks

Bust: Frank Gore, Mark Ingram

Reasonable Return: Colin Kaepernick, Vernon Davis, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham

 

Steelers @ Jets
-4.5 Spread 4.5
25 Team O/U 20.5
68.2 Plays/Gm 68.4
60.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.7
40.7% Rush % 43.2%
59.3% Pass % 56.8%
38.2% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
61.8% Opp Pass % 58.1%

 

  • Through five games with Seattle, Percy Harvin played 190 snaps, totaling 33 touches for 225 yards from scrimmage. In two games with New York, he’s played 104 snaps with 19 touches for 187 YFS.
  • The Jets now rank dead last in the league in points per offensive play (0.250).
  • Martavis Bryant with 24% of the Pittsburgh red zone targets since his promotion, converting all four for TD.
  • The Jets have allowed the most red zone passing touchdowns (17).
  • 10 of those red zone touchdowns allowed by the Jets have been scored by tight ends.
  • The Steelers average 17.5 points per game on the road so far this season as opposed to 35.6 at home, the largest gap in home/road scoring in the lead.
  • Ben Roethlisberger’s finishes on the road are QB30, QB18, QB24 and QB23 as opposed to QB12, QB10, QB11, QB1, and QB1 at home.
  • Le’Veon Bell has gone 140 carries since his last rushing score.
  • Pittsburgh has scored a touchdown on 12 of 24 drives the past two games after scoring on 14 of 75 (19 percent) over their first seven games.
  • Antonio Brown‘s PPR weekly finishes: WR5, WR13, WR2, WR3, WR26, WR19, WR8, WR3, WR3.
  • Brown has eight games with 90 or more receiving yards, the next closest is a five (five players).
  • After not allowing a top 12 quarterback through the first six weeks of the season, the Steelers have allowed three in a row.
  • Heath Miller had 24.2 points versus the Colts and 24.5 against the Buccaneers. In the other seven games this season, he averages 5.2 points per game.

Trust: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Mike Vick, Eric Decker

Bust: Chris Johnson, Jace Amaro

Reasonable Return: Percy Harvin, Chris Ivory, Heath Miller, Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, Le’Veon Bell

 

Falcons @ Buccaneers
0 Spread 0
22.8 Team O/U 22.8
63.0 Plays/Gm 58.2
67.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.2
35.3% Rush % 37.1%
64.7% Pass % 62.9%
47.9% Opp. Rush % 43.8%
52.1% Opp Pass % 56.2%

 

  • Josh McCown still leads the Buccaneers in rushing touchdowns with two.
  • In the Georgia Dome, Ryan averages 335 passing yards and has a 7/1 TD/INT split. Outside of those confines, he’s averaging 260.2 passing yards with a 8/7 split
  • Ryan has an 8:10 TD:INT ratio in his career on the road in Tampa Bay.
  • Tampa Bay has allowed six quarterbacks to notch 17 or more points (only prevented Teddy Bridgewater and Austin Davis).
  • Julio Jones has averaged just 4.3 catches for 60.7 yards over his past three games with single digit scoring in every one.
  • Just 4.8 percent (four of 83) of Jones’ targets have come in the red zone this season, second lowest percentage of all players (Pierre Garcon 3.2 percent).
  • Roddy White has scored in just three of 17 games against the Bucs in his career.
  • The Falcons have run 24 pass plays in the red zone this season, fewest in the NFL.
  • They’ve run 47 total plays in the red zone, second fewest ahead of only Oakland (43).
  • Vincent Jackson has double digit targets in four of the five games while Mike Evans has only one of the past four games he’s been active.
  • Despite the target difference and one fewer game played, Evans has outscored Jackson 75.2 to 62.1 over that stretch.
  • From a weekly standpoint, Evans has been a top 40 scoring receiver in all four of those games, while Jackson just twice.

Trust: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans

Bust: Steven Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bobby Rainey

Reasonable Return: Roddy White, Charles Sims, Josh McCown

 

Broncos @ Raiders
-12.5 Spread 12.5
30.8 Team O/U 18.3
65.6 Plays/Gm 58.9
68.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.6
39.2% Rush % 32.1%
60.8% Pass % 67.9%
31.9% Opp. Rush % 52.5%
68.1% Opp Pass % 47.5%

 

  • Only 14.6 percent (13 of 89) of the Raider’s drives this season have reached the red zone, lowest percentage in the league.
  • The Broncos have scored a touchdown on 15 of their past 16 red zone trips over their past five games.
  • In the two games facing Oakland last season, Julius Thomas totaled nine receptions for 73 yards and one touchdown.
  • 29.6 percent (14 of 44) of Thomas’ targets this year have been in the red zone, highest percentage of all players with 40 or more overall targets.
  • No tight end has reached five receptions in a game against Oakland this season.
  • In the four meetings since Peyton Manning has been a member of the Broncos, Denver has beaten Oakland all four times by an average score of 33.5 to 13.5.
  • Demaryius Thomas has topped 80 receiving yards in all four of those games.
  • Thomas has gone over 100 yards receiving in five straight games, the longest in the league this season.
  • Emmanuel Sanders is one of only three receivers to have at least one 20 yard reception in every game this season. The others are Julio Jones and Antonio Brown.
  • Denver allowed only three receivers to score over their first five games, but have allowed six over their past four games.

Trust: Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Ronnie Hillman

Bust: Derek Carr, Darren McFadden, Mychal Rivera

Reasonable Return: Julius Thomas, Andre Holmes, James Jones

 

Giants @ Seahawks
10.5 Spread -10.5
17 Team O/U 27.5
66.6 Plays/Gm 61.6
63.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.2
43.7% Rush % 47.5%
56.3% Pass % 52.5%
42.6% Opp. Rush % 42.5%
57.4% Opp Pass % 57.5%

 

  • The Giants have allowed the most 15 yard runs on the season (19).
  • Russell Wilson‘s 6.2 yards per attempt and 56.5 completion percentage both rank 34th out of all quarterbacks over the past four weeks.
  • Odell Beckham’s 156 receiving yards last week were the most by a Giants rookie receiver since Earnest Gray in 1979.
  • 54 percent of Beckham’s point total this season has come while trailing in the fourth quarter.
  • Eli Manning threw a career high five interceptions against Seattle in their meeting last season. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his past four games, the longest streak of his career.
  • Seattle is the league’s toughest fantasy rush defense, allowing only 0.38 points per carry.
  • Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 100 or more yards only once this season and only four times in his past 24 games played.
  • Wilson has three 100-yard rushing games over the same stretch.
  • After allowing 60 receptions for 714 yards and three scores to opposing receivers over their first four games, Seattle has allowed 29 catches for 421 yards and zero touchdowns to receivers in the four games since.
  • Seattle has allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, but only two top 12 scoring weeks to the position and only Antonio Gates topped 40 yards receiving.

Trust: Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin

Bust: Andre Williams, Odell Beckham, Eli Manning

Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson, Rueben Randle

 

Rams @ Cardinals
8 Spread -8
17.5 Team O/U 25.5
61.6 Plays/Gm 63.8
61.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.6
40.8% Rush % 41.6%
59.2% Pass % 58.4%
48.4% Opp. Rush % 36.6%
51.6% Opp Pass % 63.4%

 

  • Michael Floyd currently has a 47.9 percent catch rate as opposed to a 58.6 percent in 2013.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, 64.4 percent of Floyd’s targets have come inside of 20 yards, as opposed to 75.7 percent in 2013.
  • Larry Fitzgerald has been a top 30 PPR WR in three of the four weeks since Carson Palmer returned from injury.
  • In two games against the Rams last season, Fitzgerald had 20 receptions on 26 targets for 176 yards and three touchdowns.
  • Fitzgerald has 16 career touchdowns against the Rams in 20 games, the most touchdowns he’s scored versus any opponent.
  • Since Palmer returned in week 6, John Carlson leads the Cardinals in red zone targets with seven (converting only one). The next closest player is Fitzgerald with three.
  • Palmer has thrown an interception on only 1.1 percent of his throws this season. His career low is 2.4 percent in 2005.
  • Since being a top 6 quarterback in his third and fourth games, Austin Davis has finished as QB25, QB21, QB27 and QB26 the past four weeks.
  • Tre Mason has a touch on 55.3 percent of his snaps, second behind only Mark Ingram (56.8) in touch percentage of all players who average 20 or more snaps per game.
  • Jared Cook had two touchdowns on his first six receptions as a Ram. He has scored on three of his 74 since then.
  • Offensive plays run by the Rams over the past three weeks: 52, 51, 49.

Trust: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Ellington

Bust: Austin Davis, Tre Mason, Jared Cook, Kenny Britt

Reasonable Return: John Brown, Michael Floyd

 

Bears @ Packers
8 Spread -8
22.8 Team O/U 30.8
63.4 Plays/Gm 59.1
62.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.8
37.1% Rush % 41.0%
62.9% Pass % 59.0%
41.9% Opp. Rush % 46.7%
58.1% Opp Pass % 53.3%

 

  • The Bears average 8.8 more points per game (25.8 total) on the road than at home, largest increase in road scoring in the league.
  • Chicago has allowed opponents to score (touchdown or field goal) on 16 of 27 drives (59 percent) on the road this season, highest percentage in the league.
  • The Packers have scored on 50 percent (17 of 34) of their drives at home this season.
  • Cobb has yet to see double digit targets in any game this season, while Jordy Nelson has 12 or more in four.
  • 23.6 percent (13 of 55) of Cobb’s targets have been in the red zone, highest percentage of all receivers with 40 or more targets.
  • Randall Cobb has caught a touchdown in five straight games, the longest active streak. He can tie the franchise record of six straight this week set by Sterling Sharpe in 1994.
  • Bennett has seven or more targets in every game but one and has been a top 13 fantasy producer at his position in seven of eight games.
  • Matt Forte has been a top three PPR scorer at running back in six of eight games this season.
  • Forte’s past three PPR finishes versus the Packers: RB5 (22.1 points), RB1 (37.7), RB4 (28.9).
  • Green Bay has allowed five top 12 scoring weeks to running backs.
  • Forte has played 91 percent of the Bears snaps this season, most of all running backs by a wide margin. Le’Veon Bell is second at 77.5 percent.
  • As a member of the Bears, Jay Cutler averages 10.9 fantasy points per game in nine starts versus the Packers and has yet to throw multiple touchdowns while playing at Lambeau.

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Matt Forte

Bust: Eddie Lacy, Davante Adams

Reasonable Return: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Jay Cutler

 

Panthers @ Eagles
7 Spread -7
20.5 Team O/U 27.5
63.2 Plays/Gm 72.4
64.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.4
40.9% Rush % 40.2%
59.1% Pass % 59.8%
42.4% Opp. Rush % 41.6%
57.6% Opp Pass % 58.4%

 

  • Kelvin Benjamin has caught under 60 percent of his targets in five of eight games this season.
  • Over their past three games, Carolina averages the fewest points per offensive play (0.202) in the league.
  • Jeremy Maclin career receiving yards through eight games played; 2009: 413, 2010: 506, 2011: 543, 2012: 449, 2014: 790.
  • The Eagles allow the lowest completion percentage to opposing passers at 56.5 percent and have allowed only 51.6 percent of passes to be complete over their past three games.
  • The Panthers have scored a touchdown on just three of their past 31 drives since week seven.
  • Cam Newton has just a 54 percent completion rate over his past six games (sub 60 percent in five of those games).
  • The Eagles have allowed 17 or more points to seven opposing signal callers so far and seven top 12 weekly scorers through eight games.
  • Over the past three games, LeSean McCoy has carried 66 times for 349 yards (5.3 YPC).
  • The Panthers are allowing the most fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.74) in the league and nine rushing scores over their past six games.
  • Quarterback finishes against the Eagles this season: QB11, QB6, QB2, QB12, QB3, QB29, QB10, QB8.
  • Philadelphia has run 65 or more offensive plays in every game except versus San Francisco, when they scored three defensive touchdowns.

Trust: LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen

Bust: Johnathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Zach Ertz

Reasonable Return: Cam Newton,  Mark Sanchez, Jordan Matthews

 

Context Key:

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes

59 Comments

More in Fantasy Football