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NFL Week 13 Picks: Green Bay Ends New England’s Run

Mario Mergola looks at every game in the NFL and offers up his week 13 picks.

Aaron Rodgers

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+6)*

Don’t be fooled. We all just witnessed yet another disastrous Jets performance. We all are aware that they are one of the worst teams in the league. We all know the Dolphins should tear them apart on Monday Night Football.

We should also be aware of how ‘easy’ this game looks on the surface.

Monday night’s matchup looks strangely similar to that of the Titans and Steelers a few weeks prior. Pittsburgh was clearly the better team, and ultimately the Steelers won outright, but Tennesee made it so difficult in its home building that it eventually beat the spread.

Don’t be fooled. It will happen again.

The Jets and Dolphins have split their season series every time for the past four years. In all likelihood, that won’t happen again this year, as the Jets are so bad that they shouldn’t be able to beat the Dolphins, but the evenness of the series in recent years speaks to level of equal competition that arises when the two meet.

The real key, however, is that the Jets do have one actual strength – they have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards all season. Miami’s offense benefits most from its ninth-ranked rushing offense, but this matchup should yield one output that aids in the Jets’ ability to stay in the game – long drives by Miami without quick bursts of scoring. New York has no ability to hang in a dogfight, but a low-scoring game – even one in which Miami dominates the time of possession – helps keep the Dolphins from pulling away.

The Jets stay close enough to make this a game to the end, but lose by a field goal, beating the spread.

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